{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f96eea84-c92b-4cfa-a46a-36394d655f2e", "symbol": "300239", "name": "Baotou Dongbao Bio-Tech Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.42, "architecture_energy": 59.898, "architecture_maturity": 33.848, "architecture_confidence": 84.867, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.16, "rotation_up": 12.38, "upward_expansion": 12.12, "deceleration": 39.84, "rotation_down": 65.93, "downward_expansion": 85.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.847333, 4.972182, 5.10355, 5.253221 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.95, "trend_reference": 5.488404, "distance_from_trend": -0.098098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.475835, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.043328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19322, "excess_performance": -0.20062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37005496, "relative_activity": 0.791047, "balance": 1.193519, "dry_up": 1.152512, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080009, "annualized_volatility": 0.332355, "from_high_reference": -0.272478, "from_low_reference": 0.109865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.488404, "fair_value_reference": 5.475835, "structural_low": 4.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.00717, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.013404, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.158909, "worst_return": -0.139823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.047771, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.016043, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.206208, "worst_return": -0.132743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07636, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179601, "worst_return": -0.198256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-11.383963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.626116, "energy": 29.146151, "activity_lines": [ 5.186, 5.173321, 5.263326, 5.408415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.52, "volume": 65928002, "typical_volume": 47080837.45, "trend": 5.548496, "fair_value": 5.49549, "relative_strength": -19.969169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.645279, "energy": 61.217337, "activity_lines": [ 4.944, 5.05232, 5.182261, 5.340109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.77, "volume": 36338820, "typical_volume": 46760094.15, "trend": 5.518276, "fair_value": 5.486258, "relative_strength": -13.572855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.831109, "energy": 64.049345, "activity_lines": [ 4.848667, 4.991636, 5.131558, 5.289884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.95, "volume": 37005496, "typical_volume": 46780416.25, "trend": 5.488404, "fair_value": 5.475835, "relative_strength": -14.043328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.420085, "energy": 59.897614, "activity_lines": [ 4.847333, 4.972182, 5.10355, 5.253221 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }