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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.531, "architecture_energy": 52.075, "architecture_maturity": 42.983, "architecture_confidence": 71.978, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.33, "rotation_up": 60.5, "upward_expansion": 82.73, "deceleration": 57.73, "rotation_down": 22.17, "downward_expansion": 7.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.326851, 31.126534, 30.77201, 30.348815 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.68, "trend_reference": 29.867119, "distance_from_trend": 0.060698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.876274, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.987993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078285, "excess_performance": -0.301027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078285, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 598114, "relative_activity": 1.147273, "balance": 1.183239, "dry_up": 1.205949, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023829, "annualized_volatility": 0.163965, "from_high_reference": -0.012777, "from_low_reference": 0.333142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.867119, "fair_value_reference": 23.876274, "structural_low": 27.23, 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"relative_strength": -19.001828, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.736111, "energy": 50.128912, "activity_lines": [ 30.936723, 30.796494, 30.365952, 30.008094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.040001, "volume": 597194, "typical_volume": 530775.6, "trend": 29.616893, "fair_value": 23.727527, "relative_strength": -19.638589, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.717957, "energy": 47.532873, "activity_lines": [ 30.972871, 30.859235, 30.480908, 30.108149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.41, "volume": 547433, "typical_volume": 527039.65, "trend": 29.742785, "fair_value": 23.803003, "relative_strength": -17.148728, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.159849, "energy": 47.41054, "activity_lines": [ 31.13327, 30.979066, 30.620102, 30.223834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.68, "volume": 598114, "typical_volume": 521335.55, "trend": 29.867119, "fair_value": 23.876274, "relative_strength": -17.987993, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.530976, "energy": 52.074887, "activity_lines": [ 31.326851, 31.126534, 30.77201, 30.348815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }