{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f974ef19-d607-4f9d-9ce7-f06712ae3c3c", "symbol": "BBDO", "name": "Banco Bradesco S/A ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.434, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.929, "architecture_energy": 21.635, "architecture_maturity": 17.936, "architecture_confidence": 66.186, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.48, "rotation_up": 41.63, "upward_expansion": 26.37, "deceleration": 38.9, "rotation_down": 19.99, "downward_expansion": 49.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.231705, 3.133519, 3.140775, 3.190622 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.15, "trend_reference": 3.255077, "distance_from_trend": -0.032281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.368846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.851629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090622, "excess_performance": -0.216247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.084905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 487554, "relative_activity": 1.305088, "balance": 1.084905, "dry_up": 1.353152, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077235, "annualized_volatility": 0.407542, "from_high_reference": -0.169294, "from_low_reference": 0.371605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.255077, "fair_value_reference": 2.368846, "structural_low": 2.760489, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.051675, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025151, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.154856, "worst_return": -0.264308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063645, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.124662, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.370108, "worst_return": -0.165328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025264, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.050171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.494891, "worst_return": -0.25905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062176, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.17573, "worst_return": -0.195221, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143501, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"fair_value": 2.349868, "relative_strength": -5.304734, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.494704, "energy": 24.879217, "activity_lines": [ 3.0384, 3.004269, 3.118421, 3.184207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.206627, "volume": 449357, "typical_volume": 366937.6, "trend": 3.228897, "fair_value": 2.355066, "relative_strength": -1.355813, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.860153, "energy": 20.962997, "activity_lines": [ 3.109746, 3.040074, 3.12095, 3.183629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.436385, "volume": 761345, "typical_volume": 370143.55, "trend": 3.249095, "fair_value": 2.362824, "relative_strength": 4.162847, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.933573, "energy": 19.202724, "activity_lines": [ 3.235765, 3.116013, 3.145292, 3.197016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.15, "volume": 487554, "typical_volume": 373579.3, "trend": 3.255077, "fair_value": 2.368846, "relative_strength": -7.851629, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.928869, "energy": 21.635294, "activity_lines": [ 3.231705, 3.133519, 3.140775, 3.190622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }