{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f976e1e6-2126-4a37-b5e3-2e9ec988004e", "symbol": "VFEA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.057, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.552, "architecture_energy": 29.464, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.2, "rotation_up": 37.06, "upward_expansion": 60.41, "deceleration": 85.26, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 19.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.635997, 75.693816, 75.139618, 74.061805 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 76.879997, "trend_reference": 72.825999, "distance_from_trend": 0.055667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.664199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.889455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083122, "excess_performance": -0.08777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083122, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.346438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24675, "relative_activity": 1.010047, "balance": 1.346438, "dry_up": 1.095507, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026265, "annualized_volatility": 0.156025, "from_high_reference": -0.007744, "from_low_reference": 0.234227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.825999, "fair_value_reference": 60.664199, "structural_low": 65.849998, "invalidation": "A 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102447, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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"energy": 68.708511, "activity_lines": [ 76.335999, 75.773454, 74.350809, 73.285699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.0, "volume": 37844, "typical_volume": 27565.25, "trend": 72.110667, "fair_value": 60.187276, "relative_strength": -6.483442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.534598, "energy": 40.587889, "activity_lines": [ 75.606666, 75.525636, 74.457523, 73.422924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.089996, "volume": 15454, "typical_volume": 26065.15, "trend": 72.383333, "fair_value": 60.33516, "relative_strength": -4.877103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.83887, "energy": 32.865459, "activity_lines": [ 75.330665, 75.499635, 74.658523, 73.615139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.019997, "volume": 29078, "typical_volume": 24696.35, "trend": 72.593333, "fair_value": 60.490353, "relative_strength": -5.522593, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.15202, "energy": 24.194745, "activity_lines": [ 75.175331, 75.435089, 74.824189, 73.785247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.879997, "volume": 24675, "typical_volume": 24429.55, "trend": 72.825999, "fair_value": 60.664199, "relative_strength": -5.889455, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.551811, "energy": 29.464117, "activity_lines": [ 75.635997, 75.693816, 75.139618, 74.061805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }