{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f98bcf4e-8eda-4e15-b272-bcd6e80bebc1", "symbol": "SGML", "name": "Sigma Lithium Resources Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.1, "architecture_energy": 56.659, "architecture_maturity": 23.222, "architecture_confidence": 65.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.76, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 44.38, "rotation_down": 65.68, "downward_expansion": 62.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.513333, 11.226, 13.32419, 13.655032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.38, "trend_reference": 13.633167, "distance_from_trend": -0.165271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.022869, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.124597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06874, "excess_performance": -0.256193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040728, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188469, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.529912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.053378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460614, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7651785, "relative_activity": 0.513274, "balance": 0.460614, "dry_up": 0.52328, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.227558, "annualized_volatility": 1.102212, "from_high_reference": -0.535131, "from_low_reference": 1.465872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.633167, "fair_value_reference": 14.022869, "structural_low": 5.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0445, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041082, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.084947, "worst_return": -0.287277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.078701, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.15028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078701, "worst_return": -0.078701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.641474, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.846115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.641474, "worst_return": -0.641474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.175627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.403046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.613748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0445, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.57, "volume": 3573454, "typical_volume": 3102245.35, "trend": 36.3725, "fair_value": 16.570084, "relative_strength": -13.323388, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.259314, "energy": 55.375031, "activity_lines": [ 11.525333, 12.761636, 14.534214, 14.344333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.63, "volume": 8060838, "typical_volume": 15229584.7, "trend": 13.848833, "fair_value": 14.355241, "relative_strength": -19.532859, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.015533, "energy": 60.92337, "activity_lines": [ 10.747333, 12.011636, 14.05719, 14.061677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.87, "volume": 8508796, "typical_volume": 15066214.4, "trend": 13.704167, "fair_value": 14.178062, "relative_strength": -18.439167, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.900438, "energy": 61.42035, "activity_lines": [ 10.317333, 11.436, 13.615929, 13.804978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.38, "volume": 7651785, "typical_volume": 14907788.2, "trend": 13.633167, "fair_value": 14.022869, "relative_strength": -11.124597, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.100402, "energy": 56.659425, "activity_lines": [ 10.513333, 11.226, 13.32419, 13.655032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }