{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f98c6e10-7540-4030-9c1d-54f90369a190", "symbol": "00638R", "name": "Yuanta/P-Shrs CSI 300 1X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.138, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.795, "architecture_energy": 14.139, "architecture_maturity": 24.477, "architecture_confidence": 65.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.01, "rotation_up": 26.99, "upward_expansion": 24.94, "deceleration": 48.95, "rotation_down": 29.19, "downward_expansion": 49.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.664, 6.654727, 6.630429, 6.699247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.57, "trend_reference": 6.785, "distance_from_trend": -0.031688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.457051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.902206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051948, "excess_performance": -0.43126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012277, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223133, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1442000, "relative_activity": 0.741389, "balance": 0.886023, "dry_up": 0.946109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035593, "annualized_volatility": 0.145314, "from_high_reference": -0.136662, "from_low_reference": 0.047847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.785, "fair_value_reference": 8.457051, "structural_low": 6.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.018341, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.028656, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.058008, "worst_return": -0.083045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012848, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.078648, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.17875, "worst_return": -0.144628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014146, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026621, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.077658, "worst_return": -0.159453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039124, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.178759, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.137453, "worst_return": -0.194761, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.097063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010401, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010511, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020864, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 9.15, "volume": 2595000, "typical_volume": 3484275.05, "trend": 9.373667, "fair_value": 8.877885, "relative_strength": -13.956691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance 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21.071228, "activity_lines": [ 6.622, 6.574182, 6.642857, 6.725634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.92, "volume": 2591350, "typical_volume": 1923516.25, "trend": 6.806333, "fair_value": 8.511218, "relative_strength": -27.829311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.45016, "energy": 16.853501, "activity_lines": [ 6.733333, 6.640182, 6.658571, 6.733032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.59, "volume": 1157368, "typical_volume": 1884951.7, "trend": 6.795333, "fair_value": 8.492821, "relative_strength": -31.83143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.580348, "energy": 22.715681, "activity_lines": [ 6.706667, 6.640182, 6.643714, 6.719075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.71, "volume": 2170000, "typical_volume": 1928597.7, "trend": 6.792, "fair_value": 8.47391, "relative_strength": -28.737051, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.189978, "energy": 14.326263, "activity_lines": [ 6.712, 6.660727, 6.642952, 6.71357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.57, "volume": 1442000, "typical_volume": 1944997.7, "trend": 6.785, "fair_value": 8.457051, "relative_strength": -30.902206, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.795294, "energy": 14.139412, "activity_lines": [ 6.664, 6.654727, 6.630429, 6.699247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }