{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f98ef5d1-8a38-4fb9-be46-d64f3af20d0d", "symbol": "APURE", "name": "Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.526, "architecture_energy": 18.656, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.937, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.4, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 17.55, "deceleration": 44.41, "rotation_down": 27.85, "downward_expansion": 56.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.06, 2.050182, 2.054762, 2.087914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 2.129333, "distance_from_trend": -0.041954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.376413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.281077, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072727, "excess_performance": -0.265052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048017, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774338, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434200, "relative_activity": 0.754697, "balance": 0.774338, "dry_up": 1.22408, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039593, "annualized_volatility": 0.446238, "from_high_reference": -0.374233, "from_low_reference": 0.073684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.129333, "fair_value_reference": 3.376413, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.016969, "positive_rate": 0.227273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.016104, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.203704, "worst_return": -0.191489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.039947, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.041086, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.044776, "worst_return": -0.275168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.04592, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.097481, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.030351, "worst_return": -0.349398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.209946, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.076289, "worst_return": -0.387879, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-01-21", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.213452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2022-10-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-21", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034188, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078808, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-20", 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-54.701953, "energy": 42.463695, "activity_lines": [ 2.030667, 2.034545, 2.079333, 2.115011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.02, "volume": 361100, "typical_volume": 937710.0, "trend": 2.142, "fair_value": 3.453944, "relative_strength": -32.560639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.460383, "energy": 32.721652, "activity_lines": [ 2.029333, 2.028727, 2.067714, 2.106624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.06, "volume": 304400, "typical_volume": 870245.0, "trend": 2.138667, "fair_value": 3.437841, "relative_strength": -30.895639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.521303, "energy": 26.619494, "activity_lines": [ 2.04, 2.032, 2.062667, 2.101333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.08, "volume": 1751900, "typical_volume": 923035.0, "trend": 2.136, "fair_value": 3.417357, "relative_strength": -29.329888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.545291, "energy": 18.065786, "activity_lines": [ 2.054667, 2.041091, 2.061048, 2.097548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 326500, "typical_volume": 923745.0, "trend": 2.133333, "fair_value": 3.396872, "relative_strength": -27.431189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.88178, "energy": 16.705137, "activity_lines": [ 2.066667, 2.049818, 2.059714, 2.093935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 434200, "typical_volume": 575330.0, "trend": 2.129333, "fair_value": 3.376413, "relative_strength": -27.281077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.526082, "energy": 18.655852, "activity_lines": [ 2.06, 2.050182, 2.054762, 2.087914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }