{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f98f8cbf-d466-4904-8905-7f0d5c7cb65c", "symbol": "300782", "name": "Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.971, "architecture_energy": 63.225, "architecture_maturity": 15.857, "architecture_confidence": 71.195, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.29, "rotation_up": 16.37, "upward_expansion": 22.19, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 69.28, "downward_expansion": 61.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.913999, 83.01309, 93.133857, 93.43714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 78.019997, "trend_reference": 91.595667, "distance_from_trend": -0.148213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.501047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.821385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003576, "excess_performance": -0.010976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277117, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178044, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552337, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80179775, "relative_activity": 0.801592, "balance": 0.552337, "dry_up": 0.831603, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19774, "annualized_volatility": 0.73175, "from_high_reference": -0.46156, "from_low_reference": 0.208675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.595667, "fair_value_reference": 91.501047, "structural_low": 64.550003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071238, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.048355, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.240223, "worst_return": -0.056675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036222, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.01944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260193, "worst_return": -0.044671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04848, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.767498, "worst_return": -0.323011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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90.935819, 97.913239, 95.870646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.919998, "volume": 69980441, "typical_volume": 100866594.35, "trend": 91.711, "fair_value": 91.736033, "relative_strength": -18.519223, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.496258, "energy": 64.233548, "activity_lines": [ 76.182, 85.532727, 95.01481, 94.32043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.019997, "volume": 80179775, "typical_volume": 100025686.25, "trend": 91.595667, "fair_value": 91.501047, "relative_strength": -10.821385, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.970909, "energy": 63.224976, "activity_lines": [ 74.913999, 83.01309, 93.133857, 93.43714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }