{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f98f8e29-e8ab-4071-a8b0-b2ed4f5c9c5a", "symbol": "300783", "name": "Three Squirrels Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.693, "architecture_energy": 19.88, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.361, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.45, "rotation_up": 29.56, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 24.72, "downward_expansion": 60.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.226, 16.911454, 17.37111, 17.971407 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.49, "trend_reference": 19.211504, "distance_from_trend": -0.089608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.831795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.632521, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.266359, "excess_performance": -0.273759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099369, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65907, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39876374, "relative_activity": 1.379284, "balance": 0.65907, "dry_up": 1.514544, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079157, "annualized_volatility": 0.333851, "from_high_reference": -0.39648, "from_low_reference": 0.121154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.211504, "fair_value_reference": 22.831795, "structural_low": 15.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.018704, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.022648, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.233315, "worst_return": -0.174308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034701, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.143218, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.803955, "worst_return": -0.359209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.100373, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.105869, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.677072, "worst_return": -0.326618, "sufficient": true 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-65.211021, "energy": 79.232802, "activity_lines": [ 16.329333, 16.960363, 17.693017, 18.635042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.92, "volume": 38556507, "typical_volume": 26983713.95, "trend": 19.848504, "fair_value": 22.868895, "relative_strength": -24.046795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.693773, "energy": 55.062972, "activity_lines": [ 16.487333, 16.842364, 17.565516, 18.434042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.94, "volume": 32646925, "typical_volume": 26429595.55, "trend": 19.57217, "fair_value": 22.850212, "relative_strength": -27.723799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.716103, "energy": 52.524675, "activity_lines": [ 16.347333, 16.588179, 17.365492, 18.18188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.219999, "volume": 64067646, "typical_volume": 28246705.7, "trend": 19.40017, "fair_value": 22.846768, "relative_strength": -15.118922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.980955, "energy": 29.414347, "activity_lines": [ 16.995333, 16.813592, 17.400944, 18.094643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.49, "volume": 39876374, "typical_volume": 28910919.2, "trend": 19.211504, "fair_value": 22.831795, "relative_strength": -21.632521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.693274, "energy": 19.879999, "activity_lines": [ 17.226, 16.911454, 17.37111, 17.971407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }