{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f990d892-5b7d-4e8f-8907-9021941b9034", "symbol": "SDG6", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global Clean Water & Sanitation UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.791, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.237, "architecture_energy": 26.18, "architecture_maturity": 28.074, "architecture_confidence": 57.541, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.22, "rotation_up": 51.26, "upward_expansion": 40.4, "deceleration": 42.99, "rotation_down": 21.81, "downward_expansion": 15.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.579333, 28.537909, 28.256119, 28.281855 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.952499, "trend_reference": 28.413, "distance_from_trend": 0.018988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.809254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.805942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.013711, "excess_performance": -0.064947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05162, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225, "relative_activity": 4.136029, "balance": 3.0, "dry_up": 1.213235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017887, "annualized_volatility": 0.113059, "from_high_reference": -0.252812, "from_low_reference": 0.066587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.413, "fair_value_reference": 28.809254, "structural_low": 27.145, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.000436, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019103, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019364, "worst_return": -0.078903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.04885, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010715, "worst_return": -0.086985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.013067, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10385, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013067, "worst_return": 0.013067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.4025, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": 44.3, "trend": 28.345, "fair_value": 28.782844, "relative_strength": -6.21908, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.540816, "energy": 38.757142, "activity_lines": [ 28.53, 28.210272, 28.073643, 28.226312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.807501, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 43.9, "trend": 28.365583, "fair_value": 28.789318, "relative_strength": -5.557157, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.019084, "energy": 54.682507, "activity_lines": [ 28.659, 28.363909, 28.134405, 28.25615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.389999, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 43.75, "trend": 28.378833, "fair_value": 28.793052, "relative_strength": -7.830111, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.340957, "energy": 40.814158, "activity_lines": [ 28.583166, 28.416182, 28.160988, 28.257726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.184999, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 43.35, "trend": 28.384667, "fair_value": 28.798501, "relative_strength": -9.303897, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.301482, "energy": 15.885298, "activity_lines": [ 28.430666, 28.414454, 28.171297, 28.24522 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.952499, "volume": 225, "typical_volume": 54.4, "trend": 28.413, "fair_value": 28.809254, "relative_strength": -6.805942, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.236728, "energy": 26.180222, "activity_lines": [ 28.579333, 28.537909, 28.256119, 28.281855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }