{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9960c9a-10b8-4235-8af8-0c79d6596b30", "symbol": "WSI", "name": "WestStar Industrial Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.151, "architecture_energy": 63.299, "architecture_maturity": 49.607, "architecture_confidence": 88.8, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.7, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 11.0, "deceleration": 51.84, "rotation_down": 65.48, "downward_expansion": 86.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0586, 0.059909, 0.062343, 0.065428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.058, "trend_reference": 0.070467, "distance_from_trend": -0.176916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.097045, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.341282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.325581, "excess_performance": -0.389287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176916, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402338, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.325581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.660573, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058355, "annualized_volatility": 0.451464, "from_high_reference": -0.414141, "from_low_reference": 0.115385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.070467, "fair_value_reference": 0.097045, "structural_low": 0.055, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038124, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.6875, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.1323, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017735, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016346, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"Developing", "return": 0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134328, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.215, "volume": 1152799, "typical_volume": 681553.5, "trend": 0.213667, "fair_value": 0.202212, "relative_strength": 5.995576, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.061, "volume": 56589, "typical_volume": 138794.5, "trend": 0.072733, "fair_value": 0.099808, "relative_strength": -14.46929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.560342, "energy": 59.931005, "activity_lines": [ 0.061533, 0.062218, 0.064638, 0.068159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.058, "volume": 187454, "typical_volume": 115769.1, "trend": 0.072133, "fair_value": 0.098865, "relative_strength": -18.389277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.240778, "energy": 58.671167, "activity_lines": [ 0.0604, 0.061291, 0.0638, 0.067209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.058, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100968.65, "trend": 0.071467, "fair_value": 0.097923, "relative_strength": -20.138278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.023303, "energy": 63.143761, "activity_lines": [ 0.059467, 0.060564, 0.063038, 0.066297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.058, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 92360.3, "trend": 0.070467, "fair_value": 0.097045, "relative_strength": -22.341282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.151295, "energy": 63.298932, "activity_lines": [ 0.0586, 0.059909, 0.062343, 0.065428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }