{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9995a64-56a9-4791-9c86-a6c28910b748", "symbol": "SGOE", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Alphabet ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.187, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.803, "architecture_energy": 18.368, "architecture_maturity": 36.321, "architecture_confidence": 55.679, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.79, "rotation_up": 29.08, "upward_expansion": 26.48, "deceleration": 49.8, "rotation_down": 28.22, "downward_expansion": 50.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.2065, 2.205091, 2.169343, 2.233924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.11, "trend_reference": 2.30675, "distance_from_trend": -0.085293, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.693616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.550453, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.389376, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.123572, "excess_performance": -0.174807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.550453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07543, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123572, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053044, "annualized_volatility": 0.387991, "from_high_reference": -0.481254, "from_low_reference": 0.097815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.30675, "fair_value_reference": 4.693616, "structural_low": 1.922, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.040283, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.052322, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.12986, "worst_return": -0.130352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.118118, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.147853, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.201958, "worst_return": -0.193149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044858, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163188, "worst_return": -0.434932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.270307, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.389618, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.443074, "worst_return": -0.408854, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034914, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.454311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126039, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03211, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.3375, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.25, "trend": 8.471708, "fair_value": 9.684343, "relative_strength": -20.009947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.229653, "energy": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.399922, "energy": 31.879811, "activity_lines": [ 2.190667, 2.139718, 2.185748, 2.260026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2225, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.1, "trend": 2.329, "fair_value": 4.786469, "relative_strength": -24.421939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.464102, "energy": 29.80319, "activity_lines": [ 2.206167, 2.164164, 2.179033, 2.25244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.395, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.1, "trend": 2.327083, "fair_value": 4.757534, "relative_strength": -18.276687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.28073, "energy": 23.487237, "activity_lines": [ 2.271833, 2.214509, 2.19014, 2.256698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.1, "trend": 2.315917, "fair_value": 4.726204, "relative_strength": -25.058299, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.682525, "energy": 19.077986, "activity_lines": [ 2.2475, 2.217727, 2.181974, 2.247209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.1, "trend": 2.30675, "fair_value": 4.693616, "relative_strength": -26.389376, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.803245, "energy": 18.367516, "activity_lines": [ 2.2065, 2.205091, 2.169343, 2.233924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }