{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f99c970f-22c0-424e-8500-10108db28692", "symbol": "ETHH", "name": "Purpose Ether ETF - Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.797, "architecture_energy": 23.951, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.438, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.56, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 20.56, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 20.51, "downward_expansion": 54.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.944667, 6.714182, 7.015571, 7.292108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.1, "trend_reference": 7.833333, "distance_from_trend": -0.093617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.662051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.592922, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086229, "excess_performance": -0.20665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334087, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086229, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64500, "relative_activity": 0.286387, "balance": 0.695722, "dry_up": 0.519936, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079848, "annualized_volatility": 0.469649, "from_high_reference": -0.621131, "from_low_reference": 0.247803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.833333, "fair_value_reference": 10.662051, "structural_low": 5.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.022001, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.037616, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.417974, "worst_return": -0.332474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.169643, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.173408, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.453988, "worst_return": -0.273196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.2, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.140153, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.1262, "worst_return": -0.429553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114943, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.244397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0131, "active": false }, { 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8.291667, "fair_value": 10.674231, "relative_strength": -45.086638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.381397, "energy": 50.243713, "activity_lines": [ 6.548667, 6.546909, 7.157905, 7.518903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 82900, "typical_volume": 293720.0, "trend": 8.149, "fair_value": 10.668846, "relative_strength": -43.88141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.507027, "energy": 36.320839, "activity_lines": [ 6.702667, 6.566364, 7.099381, 7.428473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.92, "volume": 86500, "typical_volume": 273830.0, "trend": 7.984667, "fair_value": 10.665064, "relative_strength": -42.434305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.06313, "energy": 26.681849, "activity_lines": [ 6.829333, 6.616909, 7.046524, 7.349183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.1, "volume": 64500, "typical_volume": 225220.0, "trend": 7.833333, "fair_value": 10.662051, "relative_strength": -41.592922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.797237, "energy": 23.951389, "activity_lines": [ 6.944667, 6.714182, 7.015571, 7.292108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }