{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f99ebdbc-05be-40d4-bb23-2883f43e3449", "symbol": "IVOG", "name": "VANGUARD ADMIRAL FDS INC S&P MIDCAP 400 GRTH IDX FD ETF SHS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.794, "architecture_energy": 34.54, "architecture_maturity": 45.297, "architecture_confidence": 83.826, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.55, "rotation_up": 38.0, "upward_expansion": 62.94, "deceleration": 87.16, "rotation_down": 26.21, "downward_expansion": 15.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.230707, 142.29712, 140.989668, 138.266805 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 146.248, "trend_reference": 134.888593, "distance_from_trend": 0.084213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.138976, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.790009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126979, "excess_performance": 0.001354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084213, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056391, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126979, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777162, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196234, "relative_activity": 1.454105, "balance": 0.777162, "dry_up": 0.925077, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031491, "annualized_volatility": 0.157254, "from_high_reference": -0.001447, "from_low_reference": 0.293447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.888593, "fair_value_reference": 113.138976, "structural_low": 120.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010903, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.00671, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.050935, "worst_return": -0.063253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019557, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03386, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.059019, "worst_return": -0.177826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057541, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038017, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.261949, "worst_return": 0.00777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 142.08, "volume": 93746, "typical_volume": 148358.45, "trend": 132.422825, "fair_value": 111.903132, "relative_strength": 1.490196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.509163, "energy": 50.212331, "activity_lines": [ 143.067333, 142.276909, 138.925652, 136.121058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 140.1, "volume": 146784, "typical_volume": 142100.8, "trend": 133.041653, "fair_value": 112.197868, "relative_strength": 1.604184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.864851, "energy": 38.234572, "activity_lines": [ 142.024, 142.038364, 139.376349, 136.61636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 140.9402, "volume": 85561, "typical_volume": 133383.75, "trend": 133.632993, "fair_value": 112.497725, "relative_strength": 2.763777, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.475247, "energy": 31.860038, "activity_lines": [ 141.450733, 141.947673, 139.870493, 137.125944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 139.28, "volume": 70784, "typical_volume": 132334.55, "trend": 134.21166, "fair_value": 112.794459, "relative_strength": 0.431272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.020424, "energy": 22.204952, "activity_lines": [ 140.53672, 141.489669, 140.134247, 137.490267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.248, "volume": 196234, "typical_volume": 134951.75, "trend": 134.888593, "fair_value": 113.138976, "relative_strength": 1.790009, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.7942, "energy": 34.540305, "activity_lines": [ 142.230707, 142.29712, 140.989668, 138.266805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }