{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f99faa88-8077-45d6-95a2-f2b5c2a7847e", "symbol": "8935", "name": "Pontex Polyblend Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.353, "architecture_energy": 46.455, "architecture_maturity": 8.504, "architecture_confidence": 77.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.27, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 25.55, "deceleration": 48.79, "rotation_down": 65.85, "downward_expansion": 50.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.926667, 19.236364, 19.960238, 19.896559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.25, "trend_reference": 19.865, "distance_from_trend": -0.081299, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.32869, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.71496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135071, "excess_performance": -0.576443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081299, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135071, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.759227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 676190, "relative_activity": 0.226039, "balance": 1.759227, "dry_up": 0.330231, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135511, "annualized_volatility": 0.493969, "from_high_reference": -0.420635, "from_low_reference": 0.096096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.865, "fair_value_reference": 17.32869, "structural_low": 16.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161765, "worst_return": -0.182336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244118, "worst_return": -0.080435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.165456, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.055966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.358974, "worst_return": -0.050496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111111, 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"red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186296, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03038, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.586843, "energy": 27.811768, "activity_lines": [ 19.093333, 20.338182, 20.353571, 20.153333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.5, "volume": 507103, "typical_volume": 3010303.55, "trend": 19.84, "fair_value": 17.287266, "relative_strength": -38.78001, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.261865, "energy": 34.04493, "activity_lines": [ 18.18, 19.687273, 20.119524, 19.99914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.25, "volume": 676190, "typical_volume": 2991478.1, "trend": 19.865, "fair_value": 17.32869, "relative_strength": -37.71496, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.35337, "energy": 46.454937, "activity_lines": [ 17.926667, 19.236364, 19.960238, 19.896559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }