{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9a00411-6097-447d-be17-ae9a1c4c3664", "symbol": "LYWAT", "name": "Amundi MSCI Water UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.546, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 61.261, "architecture_energy": 73.013, "architecture_maturity": 16.395, "architecture_confidence": 68.396, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.36, "rotation_up": 78.58, "upward_expansion": 64.18, "deceleration": 22.84, "rotation_down": 16.74, "downward_expansion": 22.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.158668, 65.482546, 64.277191, 64.042366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 67.57, "trend_reference": 64.051, "distance_from_trend": 0.054941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.087041, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.446474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042264, "excess_performance": -0.040619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013068, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013796, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.046864, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1986, "relative_activity": 1.383394, "balance": 4.046864, "dry_up": 2.080837, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018568, "annualized_volatility": 0.140428, "from_high_reference": -0.02154, "from_low_reference": 0.129933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.051, "fair_value_reference": 61.087041, "structural_low": 59.799999, "invalidation": "A 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"Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.508516, "energy": 67.589081, "activity_lines": [ 65.000667, 64.011818, 63.421238, 63.563419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.900002, "volume": 3466, "typical_volume": 1260.7, "trend": 63.822, "fair_value": 60.909062, "relative_strength": -6.015217, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.769725, "energy": 67.139737, "activity_lines": [ 65.339334, 64.518909, 63.676143, 63.706258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.400002, "volume": 2595, "typical_volume": 1387.85, "trend": 63.938333, "fair_value": 60.989911, "relative_strength": -6.545606, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.2675, "energy": 52.072419, "activity_lines": [ 65.391335, 64.843273, 63.879238, 63.808065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.57, "volume": 1986, "typical_volume": 1435.6, "trend": 64.051, "fair_value": 61.087041, "relative_strength": -4.446474, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.261388, "energy": 73.013069, "activity_lines": [ 66.158668, 65.482546, 64.277191, 64.042366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }