{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9a11e00-b78c-48eb-8454-dc87c3ec05b6", "symbol": "UPST", "name": "Upstart Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.706, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.835, "architecture_energy": 39.193, "architecture_maturity": 4.837, "architecture_confidence": 58.914, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.23, "rotation_up": 9.33, "upward_expansion": 11.99, "deceleration": 51.51, "rotation_down": 65.95, "downward_expansion": 68.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 503.946663, 527.009994, 533.206472, 529.847373 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 530.0, "trend_reference": 549.483664, "distance_from_trend": -0.035458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 787.334679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.326843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.780054, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19084, "excess_performance": -0.136173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.326843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050282, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211745, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.136171, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20092, "relative_activity": 2.88444, "balance": 2.136171, "dry_up": 0.78277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093155, "annualized_volatility": 0.670679, "from_high_reference": -0.617329, "from_low_reference": 0.193076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 549.483664, "fair_value_reference": 787.334679, 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"relative_strength": -40.63564, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.852484, "energy": 25.030214, "activity_lines": [ 530.441325, 543.366719, 538.014043, 538.66677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 469.0, "volume": 1035, "typical_volume": 5982.7, "trend": 562.483664, "fair_value": 787.559038, "relative_strength": -39.322163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.172085, "energy": 41.475285, "activity_lines": [ 503.493994, 529.361084, 532.72471, 531.943093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 530.0, "volume": 20092, "typical_volume": 6965.65, "trend": 549.483664, "fair_value": 787.334679, "relative_strength": -29.780054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.835129, "energy": 39.19264, "activity_lines": [ 503.946663, 527.009994, 533.206472, 529.847373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }