{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9a7520a-53c1-4ef9-b2aa-b54424be1e31", "symbol": "SEPN", "name": "Septerna, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.827, "architecture_energy": 41.205, "architecture_maturity": 51.366, "architecture_confidence": 67.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.48, "rotation_up": 43.03, "upward_expansion": 69.51, "deceleration": 73.5, "rotation_down": 25.39, "downward_expansion": 9.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.598667, 35.335455, 32.855286, 30.997828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.83, "trend_reference": 28.957833, "distance_from_trend": 0.340915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.308723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.911986, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 33.978504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.528139, "excess_performance": 0.340685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.340915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.911986, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.599549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.339785, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.333863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.528139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.849356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1541340, "relative_activity": 0.875412, "balance": 2.849356, "dry_up": 0.848062, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121014, "annualized_volatility": 0.512376, "from_high_reference": -0.044772, "from_low_reference": 2.657652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.957833, "fair_value_reference": 20.308723, "structural_low": 22.78, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.319356, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 21.4, "volume": 3254992, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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[ 34.904667, 34.298, 31.066048, 29.614591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.1, "volume": 1217060, "typical_volume": 1790668.85, "trend": 28.291167, "fair_value": 19.953696, "relative_strength": 24.336564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.990513, "energy": 33.289184, "activity_lines": [ 34.148667, 34.326182, 31.46619, 29.934473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.45, "volume": 1072639, "typical_volume": 1762156.4, "trend": 28.506833, "fair_value": 20.10957, "relative_strength": 26.946828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.345396, "energy": 30.651932, "activity_lines": [ 34.047333, 34.488, 31.974333, 30.331817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.83, "volume": 1541340, "typical_volume": 1760701.55, "trend": 28.957833, "fair_value": 20.308723, "relative_strength": 33.978504, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.826994, "energy": 41.204879, "activity_lines": [ 35.598667, 35.335455, 32.855286, 30.997828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }