{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9b44272-3115-4338-b716-ca398d3936bb", "symbol": "XYL", "name": "Xylem Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.454, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.046, "architecture_energy": 27.344, "architecture_maturity": 6.389, "architecture_confidence": 59.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.29, "rotation_up": 60.21, "upward_expansion": 39.05, "deceleration": 29.76, "rotation_down": 15.82, "downward_expansion": 20.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.738668, 103.876728, 101.475705, 102.124556 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 104.980003, "trend_reference": 104.59905, "distance_from_trend": 0.003642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 111.799148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.260937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.117383, "excess_performance": -0.29163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003642, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052625, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060995, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.888199, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45, "relative_activity": 0.473186, "balance": 0.888199, "dry_up": 0.35489, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040187, "annualized_volatility": 0.243187, "from_high_reference": -0.199542, "from_low_reference": 0.148621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.59905, "fair_value_reference": 111.799148, "structural_low": 91.396569, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00285, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 118.133736, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 121.743103, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 26.33625, "energy": 43.795095, "activity_lines": [ 105.644, 101.836756, 100.683526, 102.433846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.279999, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 105.15, "trend": 105.563523, "fair_value": 111.978919, "relative_strength": -23.223473, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.394035, "energy": 40.84696, "activity_lines": [ 106.129333, 102.942424, 101.068826, 102.391186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.540001, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 93.55, "trend": 105.089233, "fair_value": 111.870181, "relative_strength": -25.21391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.307474, "energy": 26.249261, "activity_lines": [ 104.824, 103.162364, 101.102884, 102.131604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.980003, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 95.1, "trend": 104.59905, "fair_value": 111.799148, "relative_strength": -24.260937, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.046359, "energy": 27.344144, "activity_lines": [ 104.738668, 103.876728, 101.475705, 102.124556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }