{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9b47b62-e810-468a-9e4d-673c25894c1d", "symbol": "XUFB", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Banks UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.755, "architecture_energy": 66.191, "architecture_maturity": 33.185, "architecture_confidence": 82.418, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.07, "rotation_up": 72.4, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 60.2, "rotation_down": 17.72, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3018.616667, 2986.15, 2872.395238, 2799.174268 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 3029.5, "trend_reference": 2729.358797, "distance_from_trend": 0.109968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2192.51715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381745, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.09164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065229, "excess_performance": 0.013994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031607, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040916, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078167, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065229, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.185956, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38949, "relative_activity": 0.978007, "balance": 3.185956, "dry_up": 1.320457, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032358, "annualized_volatility": 0.198969, "from_high_reference": -0.104279, "from_low_reference": 0.281485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2729.358797, "fair_value_reference": 2192.51715, "structural_low": 2413.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001836, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.00705, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.170042, "worst_return": -0.224948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 5.9e-05, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.017242, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.24523, "worst_return": -0.221274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053072, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245304, "worst_return": -0.265887, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 3040.25, "volume": 42539, "typical_volume": 42569.1, "trend": 2715.424967, "fair_value": 2173.362976, "relative_strength": 6.30972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.524607, "energy": 89.364001, "activity_lines": [ 2999.85, 2937.095455, 2819.333333, 2760.529647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3008.5, "volume": 29014, "typical_volume": 41871.3, "trend": 2723.583407, "fair_value": 2182.785634, "relative_strength": 3.815888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.727403, "energy": 66.199093, "activity_lines": [ 3007.15, 2963.104545, 2846.182143, 2779.437714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3029.5, "volume": 38949, "typical_volume": 39824.85, "trend": 2729.358797, "fair_value": 2192.51715, "relative_strength": 4.09164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.754755, "energy": 66.191448, "activity_lines": [ 3018.616667, 2986.15, 2872.395238, 2799.174268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }