{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9b59fb6-8e0b-4701-ad97-170cead4d96b", "symbol": "SAOT", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts UCITS ETF (DE) EUR acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.188, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.661, "architecture_energy": 16.732, "architecture_maturity": 74.127, "architecture_confidence": 80.164, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.33, "rotation_up": 25.9, "upward_expansion": 15.25, "deceleration": 41.46, "rotation_down": 31.07, "downward_expansion": 60.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.722833, 4.702636, 4.746955, 4.782278 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.818, "trend_reference": 4.866787, "distance_from_trend": -0.010024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.563145, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.740178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05585, "excess_performance": -0.172512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05585, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.854145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23820, "relative_activity": 1.02745, "balance": 4.854145, "dry_up": 1.078413, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037304, "annualized_volatility": 0.242952, "from_high_reference": -0.142063, "from_low_reference": 0.101761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.866787, "fair_value_reference": 5.563145, "structural_low": 4.373, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -7.9e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00532, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.153862, "worst_return": -0.103757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061263, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026904, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104347, "worst_return": -0.094705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030756, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180567, "worst_return": -0.00318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 29477.05, "trend": 4.93882, "fair_value": 5.589219, "relative_strength": -18.18427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.927082, "energy": 50.425363, "activity_lines": [ 4.667067, 4.715355, 4.758931, 4.820431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5685, "volume": 4155, "typical_volume": 27393.35, "trend": 4.912443, "fair_value": 5.578256, "relative_strength": -19.464705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.696436, "energy": 45.580775, "activity_lines": [ 4.6358, 4.681145, 4.740152, 4.79654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.761, "volume": 33088, "typical_volume": 26507.05, "trend": 4.887617, "fair_value": 5.569874, "relative_strength": -16.317844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.335346, "energy": 31.676839, "activity_lines": [ 4.6755, 4.685791, 4.740907, 4.786769 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.818, "volume": 23820, "typical_volume": 23183.6, "trend": 4.866787, "fair_value": 5.563145, "relative_strength": -15.740178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.66138, "energy": 16.732291, "activity_lines": [ 4.722833, 4.702636, 4.746955, 4.782278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }