{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9b5e3a3-6ae2-454c-b837-016afc8974b7", "symbol": "KURA", "name": "Kura Oncology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.485, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.731, "architecture_energy": 17.452, "architecture_maturity": 55.325, "architecture_confidence": 76.173, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.06, "rotation_up": 24.71, "upward_expansion": 55.78, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 36.11, "downward_expansion": 21.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.882, 10.188364, 10.009143, 9.692624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.57, "trend_reference": 9.274333, "distance_from_trend": 0.03188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.021795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203946, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.156188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.222222, "excess_performance": 0.034769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03188, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.222222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.35534, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5035086, "relative_activity": 0.656567, "balance": 1.35534, "dry_up": 0.746935, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133911, "annualized_volatility": 0.578228, "from_high_reference": -0.233787, "from_low_reference": 0.755963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.274333, "fair_value_reference": 12.021795, "structural_low": 7.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010864, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.009175, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.299284, "worst_return": -0.175186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.149384, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01854, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.267404, "worst_return": -0.225772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001212, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.456734, "worst_return": -0.35197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.288485, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034598, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.529201, "energy": 56.106244, "activity_lines": [ 10.382, 10.101818, 9.647095, 9.380151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.45, "volume": 9835221, "typical_volume": 8116623.7, "trend": 9.287167, "fair_value": 12.0475, "relative_strength": 7.902348, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.563909, "energy": 69.933442, "activity_lines": [ 10.884, 10.391273, 9.853762, 9.522333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.86, "volume": 6078142, "typical_volume": 8042810.25, "trend": 9.321167, "fair_value": 12.046538, "relative_strength": 6.191657, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.628927, "energy": 68.119371, "activity_lines": [ 11.008667, 10.524727, 9.99, 9.623806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.39, "volume": 4754767, "typical_volume": 7789158.4, "trend": 9.313167, "fair_value": 12.049231, "relative_strength": 2.687566, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.501796, "energy": 58.730407, "activity_lines": [ 10.856, 10.546545, 10.071333, 9.692763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.01, "volume": 7044394, "typical_volume": 7727959.4, "trend": 9.269, "fair_value": 12.036474, "relative_strength": -11.689267, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.11137, "energy": 17.332982, "activity_lines": [ 10.212667, 10.296182, 10.014429, 9.673204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.57, "volume": 5035086, "typical_volume": 7668807.3, "trend": 9.274333, "fair_value": 12.021795, "relative_strength": -11.156188, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.730873, "energy": 17.451865, "activity_lines": [ 9.882, 10.188364, 10.009143, 9.692624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }