{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f9bf6f47-e583-44ed-9edf-a80d9e050e72",
    "symbol": "MDU",
    "name": "MDU Resources Group Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -18.84,
    "architecture_energy": 31.441,
    "architecture_maturity": 3.665,
    "architecture_confidence": 54.092,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.66,
        "rotation_up": 18.32,
        "upward_expansion": 20.49,
        "deceleration": 53.03,
        "rotation_down": 53.95,
        "downward_expansion": 47.83
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        20.637333,
        20.859781,
        21.174724,
        21.143433
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 20.55,
    "trend_reference": 20.98684,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.020815,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.791917,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301299,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.67969,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.023902,
    "excess_performance": -0.101723,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020815,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019945,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.301299,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.196432,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.076797,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.144531,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023902,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.922785,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11528719,
      "relative_activity": 1.458202,
      "balance": 1.922785,
      "dry_up": 0.9505,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.048061,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.23116,
      "from_high_reference": -0.099757,
      "from_low_reference": 0.332095
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.98684,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.791917,
      "structural_low": 19.484544,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.004182,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016171,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.004182,
        "worst_return": -0.004182,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.026803,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.066973,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.026803,
        "worst_return": 0.026803,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.321319,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105684,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.321319,
        "worst_return": 0.321319,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.45603,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.104004,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.45603,
        "worst_return": 0.45603,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.089916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-02-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028283,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.036842,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.095192,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001187,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.268093,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.046671,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036891,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.050555,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.059758,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 8320537.6,
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        "relative_strength": -0.979192,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
          21.12,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 21.25,
        "volume": 5384485,
        "typical_volume": 8170989.2,
        "trend": 20.95644,
        "fair_value": 15.671495,
        "relative_strength": -0.04519,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 11.242651,
        "energy": 11.697358,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 19.95,
        "volume": 6162496,
        "typical_volume": 7992432.95,
        "trend": 20.967889,
        "fair_value": 15.730488,
        "relative_strength": -7.158397,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.416809,
        "energy": 35.210481,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.722667,
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          21.245607,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.55,
        "volume": 11528719,
        "typical_volume": 7906116.65,
        "trend": 20.98684,
        "fair_value": 15.791917,
        "relative_strength": -7.67969,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.840214,
        "energy": 31.441291,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}