{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9c1b059-1a4b-4137-8119-7a1b8fb17266", "symbol": "ZGL", "name": "Zicom Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.919, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.192, "architecture_energy": 27.787, "architecture_maturity": 36.377, "architecture_confidence": 63.005, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.29, "rotation_up": 41.92, "upward_expansion": 35.39, "deceleration": 52.68, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 18.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.126182, 0.120924, 0.120213 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.123733, "distance_from_trend": 0.131466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.088545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.581119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.312893, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.188706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.581119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.41127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.44115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11912, "relative_activity": 0.129337, "balance": 19.44115, "dry_up": 0.805398, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067582, "annualized_volatility": 0.638485, "from_high_reference": -0.222222, "from_low_reference": 0.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.123733, "fair_value_reference": 0.088545, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.048469, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078198, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084264, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.340909, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.063492, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051231, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015385, "worst_return": -0.118644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.261538, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.372549, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.267606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.829268, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.049, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 230790.1, "trend": 0.0577, "fair_value": 0.072551, "relative_strength": -20.154891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.242829, "energy": 45.359747, "activity_lines": [ 0.127333, 0.123309, 0.117081, 0.120477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 61649, "typical_volume": 89585.35, "trend": 0.1269, "fair_value": 0.08716, "relative_strength": -11.0253, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.105633, "energy": 33.23249, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.123545, 0.117524, 0.119957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1827, "typical_volume": 89467.25, "trend": 0.125233, "fair_value": 0.087545, "relative_strength": -10.369966, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.353418, "energy": 18.622768, "activity_lines": [ 0.123, 0.123364, 0.118014, 0.119512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 221323, "typical_volume": 96172.65, "trend": 0.1239, "fair_value": 0.087962, "relative_strength": -12.038088, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.97221, "energy": 19.748846, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.123, 0.118529, 0.119174 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 11912, "typical_volume": 92100.7, "trend": 0.123733, "fair_value": 0.088545, "relative_strength": -0.312893, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.192188, "energy": 27.787192, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.126182, 0.120924, 0.120213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }