{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9dd9fd3-c257-41c5-a6c9-e6e2eabc7f4e", "symbol": "SST", "name": "Steamships Trading Company Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.627, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.424, "architecture_energy": 91.373, "architecture_maturity": 19.097, "architecture_confidence": 81.604, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 86.08, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.572, 9.832364, 10.158485, 10.174454 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.54, "trend_reference": 10.189232, "distance_from_trend": -0.063717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.318923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.894743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092151, "excess_performance": -0.155857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004744, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225582, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092151, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.416667, "dry_up": 2.977466, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015239, "annualized_volatility": 0.194547, "from_high_reference": -0.299188, "from_low_reference": 0.001049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.189232, "fair_value_reference": 12.318923, "structural_low": 9.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010996, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.039204, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.126052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002175, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.046089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075876, "worst_return": -0.234477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111586, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.121975, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.250076, "worst_return": -0.167361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.111801, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.095196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214373, "worst_return": 0.009229, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013808, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12678, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.140117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.924836, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 381.75, "trend": 9.408129, "fair_value": 8.874552, "relative_strength": 14.760509, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.075472, "energy": 65.899424, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.595369, "energy": 44.843833, "activity_lines": [ 10.226667, 10.491818, 10.435631, 10.350226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.53, "volume": 1518, "typical_volume": 184.9, "trend": 10.225178, "fair_value": 12.358304, "relative_strength": -13.699726, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.891812, "energy": 63.259592, "activity_lines": [ 9.930667, 10.293818, 10.363471, 10.304264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.54, "volume": 649, "typical_volume": 215.95, "trend": 10.208286, "fair_value": 12.341646, "relative_strength": -12.576062, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.836134, "energy": 82.62153, "activity_lines": [ 9.736, 10.118909, 10.293649, 10.260059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.54, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 191.4, "trend": 10.198595, "fair_value": 12.3278, "relative_strength": -13.890329, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.339399, "energy": 82.247155, "activity_lines": [ 9.638667, 9.965091, 10.225164, 10.216944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.54, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 181.95, "trend": 10.189232, "fair_value": 12.318923, "relative_strength": -15.894743, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.424102, "energy": 91.37314, "activity_lines": [ 9.572, 9.832364, 10.158485, 10.174454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }