{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9e6a271-0047-42da-a6e8-0cf6532a260c", "symbol": "SREN", "name": "Sempra", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.214, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.291, "architecture_energy": 24.247, "architecture_maturity": 11.511, "architecture_confidence": 62.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.23, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 23.74, "deceleration": 53.63, "rotation_down": 53.87, "downward_expansion": 37.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.217333, 79.440486, 79.393843, 79.588763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 73.959999, "trend_reference": 79.211475, "distance_from_trend": -0.066297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.018182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.990841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020033, "excess_performance": -0.154213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013252, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020033, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.043702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 520, "relative_activity": 9.576427, "balance": 0.043702, "dry_up": 3.581952, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041985, "annualized_volatility": 0.260136, "from_high_reference": -0.143188, "from_low_reference": 0.124317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.211475, "fair_value_reference": 70.018182, "structural_low": 72.487587, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007576, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.010296, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.046753, "worst_return": -0.021277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010315, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079695, "worst_return": -0.062534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.025051, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104299, "worst_return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.046048, "energy": 58.249053, "activity_lines": [ 81.650527, 80.489009, 80.105788, 79.823026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.040001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.8, "trend": 79.177154, "fair_value": 69.808648, "relative_strength": -11.635577, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.717057, "energy": 57.713372, "activity_lines": [ 81.954666, 80.937303, 80.264973, 80.024556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.720001, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 28.3, "trend": 79.257643, "fair_value": 69.925466, "relative_strength": -15.93452, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.254148, "energy": 18.800277, "activity_lines": [ 80.577334, 80.523827, 79.996441, 79.930546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.959999, "volume": 520, "typical_volume": 54.3, "trend": 79.211475, "fair_value": 70.018182, "relative_strength": -21.990841, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.291266, "energy": 24.246712, "activity_lines": [ 78.217333, 79.440486, 79.393843, 79.588763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }