{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9ea34e4-3006-42fd-9fe3-52b840f9d68c", "symbol": "SLDR", "name": "GLOBAL X SHORT-TERM TREASURY LADDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.249, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.871, "architecture_energy": 5.574, "architecture_maturity": 23.609, "architecture_confidence": 65.652, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.41, "rotation_up": 20.59, "upward_expansion": 23.76, "deceleration": 41.55, "rotation_down": 33.49, "downward_expansion": 50.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.571443, 49.567238, 49.563644, 49.576733 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.635, "trend_reference": 49.600478, "distance_from_trend": 0.000696, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.601057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.614342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001423, "excess_performance": -0.127048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000696, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001202, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42516, "relative_activity": 0.861868, "balance": 0.777799, "dry_up": 0.401469, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003335, "annualized_volatility": 0.01363, "from_high_reference": -0.004195, "from_low_reference": 0.022387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.600478, "fair_value_reference": 48.601057, "structural_low": 49.209245, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000585, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007114, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.000604, "worst_return": 0.000567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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49.564468, 49.584735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.56808, "volume": 25557, "typical_volume": 51830.4, "trend": 49.598042, "fair_value": 48.57123, "relative_strength": -8.01665, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.35598, "energy": 11.513501, "activity_lines": [ 49.560115, 49.557851, 49.563097, 49.582987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.498287, "volume": 7180, "typical_volume": 51338.95, "trend": 49.597435, "fair_value": 48.58069, "relative_strength": -7.359627, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.542668, "energy": 24.062104, "activity_lines": [ 49.536178, 49.550114, 49.556323, 49.576551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.563095, "volume": 3965, "typical_volume": 51339.55, "trend": 49.59784, "fair_value": 48.590613, "relative_strength": -7.930904, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.60233, "energy": 21.754124, "activity_lines": [ 49.538169, 49.553458, 49.556548, 49.574336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.635, "volume": 42516, "typical_volume": 49330.05, "trend": 49.600478, "fair_value": 48.601057, "relative_strength": -10.614342, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.87093, "energy": 5.574205, "activity_lines": [ 49.571443, 49.567238, 49.563644, 49.576733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }