{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9f41cd0-a3b9-4de8-941a-c02e9ed76168", "symbol": "00682U", "name": "Yuanta S&P US Dollar ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 75.453, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.936, "architecture_energy": 21.877, "architecture_maturity": 51.219, "architecture_confidence": 72.137, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.05, "rotation_up": 32.64, "upward_expansion": 64.57, "deceleration": 84.84, "rotation_down": 25.85, "downward_expansion": 14.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.559334, 20.595818, 20.49719, 20.438129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.450001, "trend_reference": 20.359333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.744038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.878958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030746, "excess_performance": -0.348566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014175, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018912, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26879, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.172113, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.050574, "balance": 6.172113, "dry_up": 0.392253, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010344, "annualized_volatility": 0.075393, "from_high_reference": -0.021999, "from_low_reference": 0.037018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.359333, "fair_value_reference": 20.744038, "structural_low": 19.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.001867, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.007925, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.048554, "worst_return": -0.041071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002112, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065472, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.070722, "worst_return": -0.038337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007299, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.090477, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.124675, "worst_return": -0.078089, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.719999, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 79601.5, "trend": 20.307, "fair_value": 20.735449, "relative_strength": -31.021748, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.127186, "energy": 76.763554, "activity_lines": [ 20.679999, 20.565636, 20.438, 20.376408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.530001, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 79101.5, "trend": 20.318666, "fair_value": 20.735064, "relative_strength": -26.513821, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.477367, "energy": 70.43429, "activity_lines": [ 20.648, 20.579091, 20.451762, 20.390796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 74551.5, "trend": 20.338, "fair_value": 20.741026, "relative_strength": -26.403075, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.046105, "energy": 67.463997, "activity_lines": [ 20.694666, 20.632909, 20.489143, 20.421849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.49, "volume": 41048, "typical_volume": 50195.95, "trend": 20.349666, "fair_value": 20.743333, "relative_strength": -25.779557, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.421616, "energy": 37.334782, "activity_lines": [ 20.620666, 20.618909, 20.494857, 20.431656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.450001, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 39545.95, "trend": 20.359333, "fair_value": 20.744038, "relative_strength": -26.878958, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.935974, "energy": 21.877314, "activity_lines": [ 20.559334, 20.595818, 20.49719, 20.438129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }