{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9f9ac84-80f5-4867-b4ee-fe6c3b1a5a86", "symbol": "688398", "name": "Fujian Supertch Advanced Material CO.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.27, "architecture_energy": 69.973, "architecture_maturity": 20.636, "architecture_confidence": 71.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.39, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 24.56, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 74.15, "downward_expansion": 66.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.4, 22.523814, 25.544873, 25.869504 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.75, "trend_reference": 25.396354, "distance_from_trend": -0.182954, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.602756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.60322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107527, "excess_performance": -0.064323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.720711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.595629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.371182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7287904, "relative_activity": 0.598877, "balance": 0.371182, "dry_up": 0.884668, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163907, "annualized_volatility": 0.53187, "from_high_reference": -0.41342, "from_low_reference": 0.245498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.396354, "fair_value_reference": 19.602756, "structural_low": 18.059999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029145, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.236882, "worst_return": -0.086379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.117949, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.355335, "worst_return": 0.087621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085128, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049736, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.61198, "worst_return": -0.342843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.20749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089239, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 24.0154, "volume": 3905486, "typical_volume": 6950216.15, "trend": 20.793363, "fair_value": 19.508029, "relative_strength": 28.925659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"trend": 25.029021, "fair_value": 19.701743, "relative_strength": 12.280603, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.378491, "energy": 18.803723, "activity_lines": [ 26.223719, 27.688454, 28.283932, 27.163187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.110001, "volume": 11422376, "typical_volume": 12487805.85, "trend": 25.178354, "fair_value": 19.695965, "relative_strength": 1.610191, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.091157, "energy": 38.034538, "activity_lines": [ 24.658667, 26.405106, 27.751072, 26.974863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.049999, "volume": 15190298, "typical_volume": 12356081.6, "trend": 25.233354, "fair_value": 19.662365, "relative_strength": -13.466236, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.56066, "energy": 64.417907, "activity_lines": [ 22.553333, 24.786786, 26.945307, 26.579486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.75, "volume": 9162526, "typical_volume": 12256098.6, "trend": 25.271354, "fair_value": 19.626193, "relative_strength": -15.137006, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.228594, "energy": 73.80617, "activity_lines": [ 20.88, 23.344127, 26.135828, 26.161205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.75, "volume": 7287904, "typical_volume": 12169290.35, "trend": 25.396354, "fair_value": 19.602756, "relative_strength": -8.60322, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.269689, "energy": 69.97316, "activity_lines": [ 20.4, 22.523814, 25.544873, 25.869504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }