{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f9fa06f1-d7e9-4a9e-a6c3-b0e2540b775e", "symbol": "PWR", "name": "Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.699, "architecture_energy": 44.97, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.839, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.82, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 13.9, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 41.84, "downward_expansion": 70.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.944, 0.943455, 0.984881, 1.073727 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.965, "trend_reference": 1.225413, "distance_from_trend": -0.212511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.660466, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.677443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.41403, "excess_performance": -0.477736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418838, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.41403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 440782, "relative_activity": 0.363394, "balance": 0.211283, "dry_up": 1.089385, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093264, "annualized_volatility": 0.394558, "from_high_reference": -0.519791, "from_low_reference": 0.34965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.225413, "fair_value_reference": 1.660466, "structural_low": 0.715, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.010321, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.023861, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.229007, "worst_return": -0.190045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038496, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.072516, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.104248, "worst_return": -0.343289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054607, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.082269, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.003938, "worst_return": -0.172172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1173137.5, "trend": 1.281172, "fair_value": 1.676505, "relative_strength": -39.185142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.608176, "energy": 53.263422, "activity_lines": [ 0.937333, 0.936909, 1.008262, 1.113677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.95, "volume": 1163163, "typical_volume": 1203666.0, "trend": 1.253043, "fair_value": 1.668982, "relative_strength": -37.344553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.714462, "energy": 51.146093, "activity_lines": [ 0.938, 0.938091, 0.995024, 1.092311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.965, "volume": 440782, "typical_volume": 1212959.25, "trend": 1.225413, "fair_value": 1.660466, "relative_strength": -37.677443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.699383, "energy": 44.970084, "activity_lines": [ 0.944, 0.943455, 0.984881, 1.073727 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }