{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa04e27a-2e4b-42ff-93e0-4cd591dd3d53", "symbol": "5EB", "name": "CFM Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.175, "architecture_energy": 48.807, "architecture_maturity": 11.497, "architecture_confidence": 87.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.34, "rotation_up": 17.19, "upward_expansion": 14.8, "deceleration": 33.29, "rotation_down": 57.75, "downward_expansion": 81.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0486, 0.050345, 0.051738, 0.052662 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.049, "trend_reference": 0.054067, "distance_from_trend": -0.093711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.069605, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.296031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.033846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169492, "excess_performance": -0.324327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.296031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.309373, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.000318, "balance": 5.309373, "dry_up": 0.466554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163265, "annualized_volatility": 0.945885, "from_high_reference": -0.436782, "from_low_reference": 0.53125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.054067, "fair_value_reference": 0.069605, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.009704, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.024513, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.326311, "worst_return": -0.157897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.070171, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.033799, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.340004, "worst_return": -0.202899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.067797, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.060142, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.37617, "energy": 28.165105, "activity_lines": [ 0.052067, 0.053055, 0.05331, 0.054062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.045, "volume": 147000, "typical_volume": 306425.0, "trend": 0.054867, "fair_value": 0.070069, "relative_strength": -33.962357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.100449, "energy": 36.58023, "activity_lines": [ 0.049533, 0.051436, 0.052481, 0.053391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.049, "volume": 170000, "typical_volume": 314920.0, "trend": 0.054433, "fair_value": 0.069831, "relative_strength": -27.676245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.309506, "energy": 42.582556, "activity_lines": [ 0.049333, 0.050873, 0.05209, 0.053013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.049, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 314915.0, "trend": 0.054067, "fair_value": 0.069605, "relative_strength": -28.033846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.175491, "energy": 48.806736, "activity_lines": [ 0.0486, 0.050345, 0.051738, 0.052662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }