{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa091676-0620-41c4-9fc3-b38ca760113e", "symbol": "300786", "name": "Qingdao Guolin Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.318, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.284, "architecture_energy": 34.911, "architecture_maturity": 65.351, "architecture_confidence": 59.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.19, "rotation_up": 19.37, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 67.31, "rotation_down": 65.19, "downward_expansion": 41.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.378, 17.657455, 18.055762, 17.597269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.81, "trend_reference": 17.173333, "distance_from_trend": -0.079387, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.266538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.308205, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014339, "excess_performance": -0.021739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079387, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54215468, "relative_activity": 1.175004, "balance": 0.978635, "dry_up": 1.81672, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206393, "annualized_volatility": 0.83859, "from_high_reference": -0.3676, "from_low_reference": 0.308775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.173333, "fair_value_reference": 15.266538, "structural_low": 12.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001815, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001136, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.237607, "worst_return": -0.240475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012298, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.04107, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.206838, "worst_return": -0.289235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180197, "worst_return": -0.347178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.187966, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.165861, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.232898, "worst_return": -0.191374, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.360589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00123, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119305, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.291492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153173, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 17.01, "volume": 9722234, "typical_volume": 23606464.95, "trend": 17.563285, "fair_value": 15.693364, "relative_strength": 4.551524, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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38707595.4, "trend": 17.316333, "fair_value": 15.316154, "relative_strength": -12.989921, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.710502, "energy": 26.596308, "activity_lines": [ 20.25, 20.321273, 18.882809, 18.101075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.46, "volume": 91198840, "typical_volume": 41953210.4, "trend": 17.283333, "fair_value": 15.294103, "relative_strength": -14.678827, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.794635, "energy": 13.745996, "activity_lines": [ 18.037333, 19.314545, 18.580095, 17.916796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.71, "volume": 88444820, "typical_volume": 45223233.4, "trend": 17.189333, "fair_value": 15.27141, "relative_strength": -17.463957, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.323352, "energy": 30.776704, "activity_lines": [ 16.024, 18.245273, 18.213571, 17.686258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.81, "volume": 54215468, "typical_volume": 46140673.4, "trend": 17.173333, "fair_value": 15.266538, "relative_strength": -9.308205, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.284384, "energy": 34.911024, "activity_lines": [ 15.378, 17.657455, 18.055762, 17.597269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }