{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa0eacd9-0d0c-4958-8214-47bd96cf15de", "symbol": "600854", "name": "Jiangsu chunlan refrigerating equipment stock co.,ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.619, "architecture_energy": 35.293, "architecture_maturity": 55.472, "architecture_confidence": 57.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.9, "rotation_up": 23.77, "upward_expansion": 16.13, "deceleration": 66.33, "rotation_down": 43.09, "downward_expansion": 66.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.273333, 4.257207, 4.504893, 4.68257 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 4.889158, "distance_from_trend": -0.10005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.625835, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.382298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168242, "excess_performance": -0.125038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181802, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28748211, "relative_activity": 0.575531, "balance": 0.986446, "dry_up": 0.684173, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093637, "annualized_volatility": 0.291017, "from_high_reference": -0.305105, "from_low_reference": 0.116751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.889158, "fair_value_reference": 4.625835, "structural_low": 3.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.046122, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.038169, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.652439, "worst_return": -0.132583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008723, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.055407, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.515244, "worst_return": -0.206136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045705, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008095, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.826219, "worst_return": -0.199211, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 4.2, "volume": 41376888, "typical_volume": 52112779.7, "trend": 4.989158, "fair_value": 4.643054, "relative_strength": -19.47565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.395248, "energy": 79.345251, "activity_lines": [ 4.224, 4.440066, 4.723507, 4.863492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.2, "volume": 37668172, "typical_volume": 52603274.3, "trend": 4.964825, "fair_value": 4.635917, "relative_strength": -14.020417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.888373, "energy": 69.133001, "activity_lines": [ 4.205333, 4.353989, 4.655532, 4.812579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.06, "volume": 41857812, "typical_volume": 52258570.85, "trend": 4.931491, "fair_value": 4.629628, "relative_strength": -17.444622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.121877, "energy": 54.03252, "activity_lines": [ 4.157333, 4.262091, 4.580034, 4.754203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.33, "volume": 28425654, "typical_volume": 50905567.75, "trend": 4.908825, "fair_value": 4.627176, "relative_strength": -11.875894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.049278, "energy": 46.108777, "activity_lines": [ 4.212, 4.246067, 4.536487, 4.715397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 28748211, "typical_volume": 49950781.4, "trend": 4.889158, "fair_value": 4.625835, "relative_strength": -12.382298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.618898, "energy": 35.29336, "activity_lines": [ 4.273333, 4.257207, 4.504893, 4.68257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }