{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa13a554-3b84-41ba-9f47-468610159b9b", "symbol": "EMAE", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI EM Asia UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.476, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.692, "architecture_energy": 25.103, "architecture_maturity": 65.108, "architecture_confidence": 77.175, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.77, "rotation_up": 16.8, "upward_expansion": 52.27, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 43.47, "downward_expansion": 22.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.745335, 110.144365, 110.004239, 107.069915 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 108.470001, "trend_reference": 103.172667, "distance_from_trend": 0.051344, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.191731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.055526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14856, "excess_performance": -0.022332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051344, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087134, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387231, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.436453, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5781, "relative_activity": 0.699621, "balance": 0.436453, "dry_up": 1.054726, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047216, "annualized_volatility": 0.249607, "from_high_reference": -0.096911, "from_low_reference": 0.379148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.172667, "fair_value_reference": 78.191731, "structural_low": 88.410004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020718, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.010106, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.153618, "worst_return": -0.040752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070787, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.022838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281035, "worst_return": -0.018117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065833, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.059718, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.276704, "worst_return": -0.024466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.943436, "energy": 60.564083, "activity_lines": [ 114.990668, 114.134001, 109.416096, 105.648839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 105.980003, "volume": 9568, "typical_volume": 10646.05, "trend": 101.265334, "fair_value": 77.344359, "relative_strength": -0.570504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.591393, "energy": 35.251407, "activity_lines": [ 111.863336, 112.838911, 109.525287, 105.997592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.660004, "volume": 2019, "typical_volume": 8345.75, "trend": 102.021667, "fair_value": 77.616731, "relative_strength": 1.024399, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.533977, "energy": 25.251186, "activity_lines": [ 109.821336, 111.940366, 109.765382, 106.410151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.389999, "volume": 17493, "typical_volume": 8761.3, "trend": 102.612, "fair_value": 77.891795, "relative_strength": -0.964866, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.279493, "energy": 24.735447, "activity_lines": [ 108.137335, 110.821093, 109.814858, 106.691979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.470001, "volume": 5781, "typical_volume": 8263.05, "trend": 103.172667, "fair_value": 78.191731, "relative_strength": -2.055526, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.692259, "energy": 25.103176, "activity_lines": [ 107.745335, 110.144365, 110.004239, 107.069915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }