{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa238b73-75bd-4e10-bb01-9aa5a9bad179", "symbol": "XDNE", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 3C EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.004, "architecture_energy": 38.599, "architecture_maturity": 61.809, "architecture_confidence": 78.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.83, "rotation_up": 40.02, "upward_expansion": 67.37, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.34, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.805333, 43.869, 43.197619, 42.349279 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.560001, "trend_reference": 41.297167, "distance_from_trend": 0.079009, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.908237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.246319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146385, "excess_performance": -0.024506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079009, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064255, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.441687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008512, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.94918, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 385, "relative_activity": 0.021299, "balance": 8.94918, "dry_up": 0.255267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027077, "annualized_volatility": 0.197518, "from_high_reference": -0.013068, "from_low_reference": 0.419787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.297167, "fair_value_reference": 30.908237, "structural_low": 37.610001, "invalidation": "A 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.369999, "volume": 4144, "typical_volume": 19461.9, "trend": 40.837333, "fair_value": 30.633558, "relative_strength": 0.996748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.789978, "energy": 43.495895, "activity_lines": [ 43.581, 43.685363, 42.7715, 41.945559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.599998, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 18950.85, "trend": 41.065, "fair_value": 30.76782, "relative_strength": 0.668891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.951725, "energy": 34.931594, "activity_lines": [ 43.521666, 43.702727, 42.95138, 42.123795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.560001, "volume": 385, "typical_volume": 18076.2, "trend": 41.297167, "fair_value": 30.908237, "relative_strength": -0.246319, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.004334, "energy": 38.599055, "activity_lines": [ 43.805333, 43.869, 43.197619, 42.349279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }