{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa255a58-5f5e-4968-90ce-dc9d4b495d00", "symbol": "002659", "name": "Beijing Kaiwen Education Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.434, "architecture_energy": 22.801, "architecture_maturity": 97.396, "architecture_confidence": 80.098, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.38, "rotation_up": 31.01, "upward_expansion": 23.36, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 59.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.341333, 4.171818, 4.353238, 4.63772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.68, "trend_reference": 5.086667, "distance_from_trend": -0.079948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.721859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.226425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.26875, "excess_performance": -0.27615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 333565910, "relative_activity": 4.754833, "balance": 1.049912, "dry_up": 2.210179, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090072, "annualized_volatility": 0.410953, "from_high_reference": -0.368421, "from_low_reference": 0.271739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.086667, "fair_value_reference": 4.721859, "structural_low": 3.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.03183, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.021359, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.465798, "worst_return": -0.199262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.062389, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.09017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.642442, "worst_return": -0.244275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.171377, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.169267, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.479651, "worst_return": -0.259574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.91, "volume": 88978800, "typical_volume": 54622019.35, "trend": 5.211, "fair_value": 4.726923, "relative_strength": -28.789715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.133737, "energy": 65.509245, "activity_lines": [ 3.914, 4.041636, 4.439619, 4.790538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.82, "volume": 77173495, "typical_volume": 53316433.15, "trend": 5.151667, "fair_value": 4.721603, "relative_strength": -29.997342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.600711, "energy": 64.861119, "activity_lines": [ 3.884, 3.969818, 4.350095, 4.700796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.62, "volume": 120484698, "typical_volume": 56469310.5, "trend": 5.126, "fair_value": 4.721346, "relative_strength": -13.541564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.751979, "energy": 42.447954, "activity_lines": [ 4.132667, 4.065273, 4.346429, 4.666495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.68, "volume": 333565910, "typical_volume": 70153029.95, "trend": 5.086667, "fair_value": 4.721859, "relative_strength": -16.226425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.434254, "energy": 22.800899, "activity_lines": [ 4.341333, 4.171818, 4.353238, 4.63772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }