{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa28d464-014e-4f9d-88aa-d8697ff4f222", "symbol": "002408", "name": "Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.188, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.849, "architecture_energy": 36.428, "architecture_maturity": 37.442, "architecture_confidence": 64.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.11, "rotation_up": 26.28, "upward_expansion": 17.28, "deceleration": 62.08, "rotation_down": 39.95, "downward_expansion": 67.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.982, 4.940182, 5.196905, 5.423957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.15, "trend_reference": 5.605667, "distance_from_trend": -0.081287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.200122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.060329, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.127119, "excess_performance": -0.134518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005741, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009639, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665066, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117157924, "relative_activity": 0.638222, "balance": 0.665066, "dry_up": 1.001469, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075579, "annualized_volatility": 0.419188, "from_high_reference": -0.27972, "from_low_reference": 0.136865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.605667, "fair_value_reference": 5.200122, "structural_low": 4.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.006173, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": 0.009883, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.124814, "worst_return": -0.188506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009416, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.016427, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.093306, "worst_return": -0.167193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051049, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.068024, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022857, "worst_return": -0.17245, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 4.841333, 4.939818, 5.371333, 5.538022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8, "volume": 202557378, "typical_volume": 207314731.0, "trend": 5.591333, "fair_value": 5.214747, "relative_strength": -10.002994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.608911, "energy": 54.884968, "activity_lines": [ 4.816, 4.887636, 5.286905, 5.487054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.06, "volume": 135727290, "typical_volume": 193455178.65, "trend": 5.596667, "fair_value": 5.207423, "relative_strength": -3.236224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.603168, "energy": 45.008625, "activity_lines": [ 4.894, 4.901091, 5.234762, 5.452774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.15, "volume": 117157924, "typical_volume": 183569328.3, "trend": 5.605667, "fair_value": 5.200122, "relative_strength": -6.060329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.848501, "energy": 36.42843, "activity_lines": [ 4.982, 4.940182, 5.196905, 5.423957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }