{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fa2afc76-2cd6-4b56-9ef4-cd8c32f92a93",
    "symbol": "XLCP",
    "name": "Invesco Communications S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.687,
    "architecture_energy": 50.151,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.346,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.107,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.47,
        "rotation_up": 15.79,
        "upward_expansion": 7.08,
        "deceleration": 57.56,
        "rotation_down": 63.09,
        "downward_expansion": 80.41
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 7108.5,
    "trend_reference": 7327.1,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.029834,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 6363.421474,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117088,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.006845,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.01999,
    "excess_performance": -0.071226,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029834,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.015243,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117088,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.113545,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.120068,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.079553,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01999,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.370266,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4654,
      "relative_activity": 1.694089,
      "balance": 0.370266,
      "dry_up": 1.828225,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.028798,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.149043,
      "from_high_reference": -0.285255,
      "from_low_reference": 0.049612
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7327.1,
      "fair_value_reference": 6363.421474,
      "structural_low": 6772.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": -0.008736,
        "positive_rate": 0.411765,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.588235,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028376,
        "regime_survival": 0.823529,
        "best_return": 0.082579,
        "worst_return": -0.079341,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.037544,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.09402,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.07596,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
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        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.236152,
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 33.31614,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 1525,
        "typical_volume": 5510.8,
        "trend": 7514.183333,
        "fair_value": 6117.988782,
        "relative_strength": -4.0515,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.697195,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 6140.43109,
        "relative_strength": -2.1277,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 3049,
        "typical_volume": 5635.85,
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        "relative_strength": -5.549987,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "energy": 42.242547,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 1851,
        "typical_volume": 5459.55,
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        "fair_value": 6183.435897,
        "relative_strength": -5.513059,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.2313,
        "energy": 26.982577,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1063,
        "typical_volume": 5121.55,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 8.276952,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -9.519109,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -11.514459,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 6277.214744,
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -9.270133,
        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -66.150959,
        "energy": 79.566774,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 7040.0,
        "volume": 2916,
        "typical_volume": 2140.0,
        "trend": 7368.3,
        "fair_value": 6313.772436,
        "relative_strength": -11.405243,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.538467,
        "energy": 80.990279,
        "activity_lines": [
          7087.266667,
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          7305.597619,
          7342.827957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6943.5,
        "volume": 5912,
        "typical_volume": 2420.2,
        "trend": 7353.683333,
        "fair_value": 6329.940705,
        "relative_strength": -13.413746,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.195849,
        "energy": 75.659631,
        "activity_lines": [
          7034.8,
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          7263.802381,
          7315.421505
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6857.5,
        "volume": 6608,
        "typical_volume": 2556.2,
        "trend": 7338.0,
        "fair_value": 6345.847756,
        "relative_strength": -15.16418,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.025132,
        "energy": 61.995418,
        "activity_lines": [
          6971.1,
          7047.2,
          7217.585714,
          7283.409677
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7108.5,
        "volume": 4654,
        "typical_volume": 2747.2,
        "trend": 7327.1,
        "fair_value": 6363.421474,
        "relative_strength": -12.006845,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.686732,
        "energy": 50.151403,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7043.063636,
          7198.564286,
          7268.603226
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}