{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa2d86d6-1e51-489b-bbbd-fc90b75807af", "symbol": "300068", "name": "ZHEJIANG NARADA POWER SOURCE Co. , Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.132, "architecture_energy": 85.613, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.818, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.63, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 49.84, "downward_expansion": 90.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.184667, 4.190545, 4.998619, 6.954925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.25, "trend_reference": 9.690333, "distance_from_trend": -0.561419, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.665452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.688997, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.578457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.715147, "excess_performance": -0.722547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.561419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.688997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.695785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024913, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.715147, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211473983, "relative_activity": 0.936513, "balance": 0.711087, "dry_up": 1.020841, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131765, "annualized_volatility": 0.925156, "from_high_reference": -0.810268, "from_low_reference": 0.158038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.690333, "fair_value_reference": 13.665452, "structural_low": 3.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.020089, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.025772, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.401028, "worst_return": -0.628931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.030844, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.080371, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.103825, "worst_return": -0.698718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.204264, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.135768, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.313305, "worst_return": -0.323077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-65.156152, "energy": 66.064546, "activity_lines": [ 4.28, 4.314364, 6.486952, 8.644903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.24, "volume": 272786537, "typical_volume": 225543452.65, "trend": 10.88, "fair_value": 13.959634, "relative_strength": -70.186727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.468116, "energy": 61.983065, "activity_lines": [ 4.306667, 4.274364, 6.041619, 8.186108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.89, "volume": 233215278, "typical_volume": 229882981.2, "trend": 10.466667, "fair_value": 13.855816, "relative_strength": -72.214325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.229961, "energy": 66.269703, "activity_lines": [ 4.182667, 4.193273, 5.617571, 7.73514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.19, "volume": 204588856, "typical_volume": 225936298.75, "trend": 10.066667, "fair_value": 13.75583, "relative_strength": -69.026381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.240468, "energy": 64.213585, "activity_lines": [ 4.176, 4.181818, 5.276619, 7.330194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.25, "volume": 211473983, "typical_volume": 225809951.3, "trend": 9.690333, "fair_value": 13.665452, "relative_strength": -69.578457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.13171, "energy": 85.61322, "activity_lines": [ 4.184667, 4.190545, 4.998619, 6.954925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }