{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa2e8098-2fbd-4149-b33f-e93ff549dbc8", "symbol": "002204", "name": "Dalian Huarui Heavy Industry Group Co., LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.268, "architecture_energy": 61.625, "architecture_maturity": 87.23, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.59, "upward_expansion": 11.82, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 53.05, "downward_expansion": 85.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.273333, 5.302935, 5.614407, 5.935786 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 6.40055, "distance_from_trend": -0.164134, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.40499, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.000425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255911, "excess_performance": -0.263311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109145431, "relative_activity": 1.093331, "balance": 0.35657, "dry_up": 1.20183, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057157, "annualized_volatility": 0.234222, "from_high_reference": -0.353865, "from_low_reference": 0.076459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.40055, "fair_value_reference": 5.40499, "structural_low": 4.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.009872, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.272487, "worst_return": -0.101322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011719, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.022825, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.17882, "worst_return": -0.076278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003906, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012403, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.744827, "worst_return": -0.107591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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86.272579, "activity_lines": [ 5.235333, 5.420284, 5.837833, 6.179634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.13, "volume": 149353432, "typical_volume": 108833785.25, "trend": 6.550217, "fair_value": 5.398577, "relative_strength": -22.443974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.578449, "energy": 69.3235, "activity_lines": [ 5.18, 5.334017, 5.737897, 6.082072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.41, "volume": 117353372, "typical_volume": 106827002.75, "trend": 6.477217, "fair_value": 5.401597, "relative_strength": -16.453499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.112394, "energy": 65.646222, "activity_lines": [ 5.239333, 5.318157, 5.67458, 6.00851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 109145431, "typical_volume": 99828333.55, "trend": 6.40055, "fair_value": 5.40499, "relative_strength": -21.000425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.267826, "energy": 61.624627, "activity_lines": [ 5.273333, 5.302935, 5.614407, 5.935786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }