{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa2f75ae-2201-4616-9e22-0f27d401b202", "symbol": "COSE", "name": "Amundi PEA S&P US Consumer Staples Screened UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.634, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.03, "architecture_energy": 33.395, "architecture_maturity": 45.204, "architecture_confidence": 61.66, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.43, "rotation_up": 47.38, "upward_expansion": 76.91, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 23.07, "downward_expansion": 3.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.277333, 11.268745, 11.14149, 11.047148 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.282, "trend_reference": 10.939033, "distance_from_trend": 0.031353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.785995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045986, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.079619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014751, "excess_performance": -0.038561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037265, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045986, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000796, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014751, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.779336, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9212, "relative_activity": 0.834708, "balance": 0.779336, "dry_up": 1.860106, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031098, "annualized_volatility": 0.157426, "from_high_reference": -0.041624, "from_low_reference": 0.161177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.939033, "fair_value_reference": 10.785995, "structural_low": 10.226, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013027, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026872, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.08668, "worst_return": -0.06204, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.043436, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.044875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043436, "worst_return": 0.043436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.088895, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041752, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.088895, "worst_return": 0.088895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": 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60.055789, "energy": 57.567599, "activity_lines": [ 11.2438, 11.164255, 11.000157, 10.927914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.43, "volume": 35117, "typical_volume": 9709.35, "trend": 10.816567, "fair_value": 10.774342, "relative_strength": 5.921331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.505828, "energy": 66.433774, "activity_lines": [ 11.313733, 11.223891, 11.049543, 10.970288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.18, "volume": 16128, "typical_volume": 10020.9, "trend": 10.857467, "fair_value": 10.777667, "relative_strength": 3.138953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.539836, "energy": 41.049023, "activity_lines": [ 11.2824, 11.228618, 11.074419, 10.993735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.306, "volume": 21657, "typical_volume": 10923.7, "trend": 10.902633, "fair_value": 10.781963, "relative_strength": 2.657372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.596525, "energy": 35.109164, "activity_lines": [ 11.279867, 11.252436, 11.110033, 11.022673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.282, "volume": 9212, "typical_volume": 11036.2, "trend": 10.939033, "fair_value": 10.785995, "relative_strength": 0.079619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.029717, "energy": 33.395475, "activity_lines": [ 11.277333, 11.268745, 11.14149, 11.047148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }