{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa362093-dbb1-498b-a2ed-34cd117555ce", "symbol": "CDI", "name": "Christian Dior SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.775, "architecture_energy": 50.568, "architecture_maturity": 6.367, "architecture_confidence": 79.894, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.08, "rotation_up": 10.59, "upward_expansion": 8.94, "deceleration": 41.41, "rotation_down": 59.78, "downward_expansion": 77.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 436.466665, 444.436364, 446.390719, 449.818787 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 436.799988, "trend_reference": 462.021536, "distance_from_trend": -0.05459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 558.832164, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.025215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116018, "excess_performance": -0.290264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014936, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116018, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.41844, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044942, "annualized_volatility": 0.278999, "from_high_reference": -0.27095, "from_low_reference": 0.047482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 462.021536, "fair_value_reference": 558.832164, "structural_low": 417.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.016432, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.007556, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.22093, "worst_return": -0.103586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.054965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.055641, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.23401, "worst_return": -0.082001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098006, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.083997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269313, "worst_return": -0.031544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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467.138313, "fair_value": 560.609254, "relative_strength": -26.86328, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.325276, "energy": 45.61593, "activity_lines": [ 438.720003, 447.083639, 447.193417, 451.776098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 436.799988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.05, "trend": 462.021536, "fair_value": 558.832164, "relative_strength": -28.025215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.77502, "energy": 50.568414, "activity_lines": [ 436.466665, 444.436364, 446.390719, 449.818787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }