{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa37b0c7-fc0f-4548-8689-bf262f29627d", "symbol": "PRX", "name": "Prodigy Gold NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.984, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.063, "architecture_energy": 49.273, "architecture_maturity": 11.099, "architecture_confidence": 83.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.77, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 23.8, "deceleration": 51.48, "rotation_down": 69.07, "downward_expansion": 53.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.062867, 0.065709, 0.069829, 0.068772 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.0677, "distance_from_trend": -0.113737, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.064308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.749556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.140629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048529, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186913, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 915612, "relative_activity": 2.046453, "balance": 0.186913, "dry_up": 1.261369, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.653459, "from_high_reference": -0.340659, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0677, "fair_value_reference": 0.064308, "structural_low": 0.053, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464286, "worst_return": -0.33333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.116532, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.123018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.170733, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.198519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.607047, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.617576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.555556, "worst_return": -0.658537, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.972506, "energy": 25.722521, "activity_lines": [ 0.0714, 0.076018, 0.07219, 0.069852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.068, "volume": 63129, "typical_volume": 515549.1, "trend": 0.067167, "fair_value": 0.065427, "relative_strength": 10.512194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.504811, "energy": 24.781615, "activity_lines": [ 0.0692, 0.074182, 0.07211, 0.069927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.064, "volume": 38177, "typical_volume": 461217.9, "trend": 0.0674, "fair_value": 0.065154, "relative_strength": 3.351231, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.270977, "energy": 23.121005, "activity_lines": [ 0.067, 0.071818, 0.071638, 0.069723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.065, "volume": 169947, "typical_volume": 452027.9, "trend": 0.067567, "fair_value": 0.064887, "relative_strength": 4.460621, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.540565, "energy": 24.772781, "activity_lines": [ 0.0662, 0.069964, 0.071262, 0.069568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.063, "volume": 1133681, "typical_volume": 492159.4, "trend": 0.067767, "fair_value": 0.064607, "relative_strength": -1.699711, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.619278, "energy": 33.59457, "activity_lines": [ 0.064867, 0.067945, 0.07069, 0.069273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 915612, "typical_volume": 447414.15, "trend": 0.0677, "fair_value": 0.064308, "relative_strength": -9.749556, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.063316, "energy": 49.272996, "activity_lines": [ 0.062867, 0.065709, 0.069829, 0.068772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }