{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa37def8-9b2a-430d-b695-359d5a0bac12", "symbol": "8421", "name": "Xu Yuan Packaging Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.705, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.418, "architecture_energy": 29.797, "architecture_maturity": 11.642, "architecture_confidence": 65.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 53.92, "upward_expansion": 76.02, "deceleration": 59.34, "rotation_down": 17.85, "downward_expansion": 5.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.564092, 14.372057, 13.97746, 13.837247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.5, "trend_reference": 13.648012, "distance_from_trend": -0.010845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.587759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.2757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026616, "excess_performance": -0.414756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006459, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044467, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.922615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1901720, "relative_activity": 1.597687, "balance": 1.922615, "dry_up": 2.321588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10921, "annualized_volatility": 0.220032, "from_high_reference": -0.24581, "from_low_reference": 0.106557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.648012, "fair_value_reference": 13.587759, "structural_low": 12.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02912, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034101, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214912, "worst_return": -0.240793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.063405, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.074093, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.438849, "worst_return": -0.12931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033777, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130055, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.279528, "worst_return": -0.209683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.307972, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.533019, "worst_return": -0.237696, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025362, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.85, "volume": 354000, "typical_volume": 1167900.0, "trend": 14.725276, "fair_value": 12.020286, "relative_strength": -19.67494, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"fair_value": 13.555277, "relative_strength": -16.915033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.319743, "energy": 47.512471, "activity_lines": [ 14.08, 13.680909, 13.584048, 13.536344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.3, "volume": 2162154, "typical_volume": 787120.1, "trend": 13.535, "fair_value": 13.564103, "relative_strength": -17.815188, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.152922, "energy": 61.810163, "activity_lines": [ 14.603333, 14.004545, 13.749048, 13.654946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 4106537, "typical_volume": 980191.95, "trend": 13.588333, "fair_value": 13.576282, "relative_strength": -15.818889, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.38567, "energy": 64.401877, "activity_lines": [ 14.986667, 14.296364, 13.905476, 13.768817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.790346, "volume": 2883090, "typical_volume": 1105419.55, "trend": 13.641345, "fair_value": 13.585836, "relative_strength": -19.686933, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.96686, "energy": 64.476975, "activity_lines": [ 15.046782, 14.464608, 14.005271, 13.846366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.5, "volume": 1901720, "typical_volume": 1190295.35, "trend": 13.648012, "fair_value": 13.587759, "relative_strength": -28.2757, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.418183, "energy": 29.797014, "activity_lines": [ 14.564092, 14.372057, 13.97746, 13.837247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }