{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa3da88c-b962-465e-be0f-cd64851e466e", "symbol": "RIM", "name": "Rimfire Pacific Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.233, "architecture_energy": 20.545, "architecture_maturity": 29.175, "architecture_confidence": 66.602, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.07, "rotation_up": 22.85, "upward_expansion": 16.43, "deceleration": 57.42, "rotation_down": 43.63, "downward_expansion": 61.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0118, 0.011891, 0.011724, 0.012187 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.013167, "distance_from_trend": -0.164557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.024452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.550138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.591429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.266667, "excess_performance": -0.330372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.550138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.690595, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9893722, "relative_activity": 2.1869, "balance": 0.690595, "dry_up": 1.357223, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181818, "annualized_volatility": 0.954182, "from_high_reference": -0.55102, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.013167, "fair_value_reference": 0.024452, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.098605, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.119465, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.06767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.714286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.415094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.527778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.008, "volume": 13478865, "typical_volume": 4860220.7, "trend": 0.007433, "fair_value": 0.008862, "relative_strength": -2.684371, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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9112447, "typical_volume": 5208892.15, "trend": 0.013533, "fair_value": 0.024337, "relative_strength": 6.716761, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.660361, "energy": 13.842098, "activity_lines": [ 0.012467, 0.011745, 0.011895, 0.012622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.012, "volume": 1815330, "typical_volume": 5114891.3, "trend": 0.013467, "fair_value": 0.024375, "relative_strength": -13.095141, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.376732, "energy": 15.698175, "activity_lines": [ 0.012467, 0.011873, 0.011848, 0.012523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 1852690, "typical_volume": 4386062.05, "trend": 0.013433, "fair_value": 0.024407, "relative_strength": -5.302567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.176327, "energy": 17.470502, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.012164, 0.011914, 0.012492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 10999021, "typical_volume": 4629013.35, "trend": 0.0133, "fair_value": 0.024433, "relative_strength": -21.43088, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.364819, "energy": 20.997637, "activity_lines": [ 0.012267, 0.012036, 0.01181, 0.012335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 9893722, "typical_volume": 4524084.8, "trend": 0.013167, "fair_value": 0.024452, "relative_strength": -23.591429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.232727, "energy": 20.544889, "activity_lines": [ 0.0118, 0.011891, 0.011724, 0.012187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }