{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa3ef8ed-896b-4ba7-b802-b402f30fad6e", "symbol": "002180", "name": "Pantum Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.89, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.088, "architecture_energy": 16.408, "architecture_maturity": 90.237, "architecture_confidence": 59.323, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.54, "rotation_up": 40.23, "upward_expansion": 32.55, "deceleration": 46.7, "rotation_down": 14.72, "downward_expansion": 40.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.33, 16.538909, 16.501048, 17.01529 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.799999, "trend_reference": 18.050333, "distance_from_trend": 0.041532, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.56641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.15855, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.11237, "excess_performance": -0.11977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041532, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11237, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.122442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122946682, "relative_activity": 1.643477, "balance": 2.122442, "dry_up": 1.453149, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100737, "annualized_volatility": 0.410534, "from_high_reference": -0.299814, "from_low_reference": 0.46875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.050333, "fair_value_reference": 23.56641, "structural_low": 12.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.010129, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013217, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.369409, "worst_return": -0.213177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.117813, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.116854, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.278142, "worst_return": -0.239009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.103911, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.305259, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030106, "worst_return": -0.396521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.062954, "energy": 25.105409, "activity_lines": [ 15.926, 15.607818, 16.316667, 17.165828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.389999, "volume": 112873321, "typical_volume": 69112148.35, "trend": 18.176667, "fair_value": 23.763782, "relative_strength": -18.726694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.192867, "energy": 23.283139, "activity_lines": [ 16.212, 15.715455, 16.268714, 17.044602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.02, "volume": 80742557, "typical_volume": 71044217.3, "trend": 18.097667, "fair_value": 23.652949, "relative_strength": -13.316382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.210119, "energy": 20.30291, "activity_lines": [ 16.556667, 15.959455, 16.294857, 16.969979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 122946682, "typical_volume": 74808887.55, "trend": 18.050333, "fair_value": 23.56641, "relative_strength": -8.15855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.088448, "energy": 16.408248, "activity_lines": [ 17.33, 16.538909, 16.501048, 17.01529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }