{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa45c6ba-c4b3-49fc-a684-427c66e83c20", "symbol": "AMZZ", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMZN DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.581, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.822, "architecture_energy": 33.021, "architecture_maturity": 35.081, "architecture_confidence": 71.941, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.77, "rotation_up": 55.99, "upward_expansion": 65.34, "deceleration": 56.46, "rotation_down": 12.75, "downward_expansion": 11.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.846267, 34.005175, 34.661394, 33.410006 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.4988, "trend_reference": 31.932467, "distance_from_trend": 0.236948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.04995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.668005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.546547, "excess_performance": 0.359093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.236948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010373, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08668, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.546547, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.757901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 933206, "relative_activity": 0.997171, "balance": 1.757901, "dry_up": 1.097015, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125863, "annualized_volatility": 0.759477, "from_high_reference": -0.083767, "from_low_reference": 0.778424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.932467, "fair_value_reference": 30.04995, "structural_low": 22.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.007362, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067478, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.007362, "worst_return": 0.007362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.236004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.383163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", 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"typical_volume": 1303844.2, "trend": 31.573267, "fair_value": 29.852353, "relative_strength": -14.623993, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.695223, "energy": 25.032218, "activity_lines": [ 33.855707, 36.076365, 33.870914, 32.596993 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.2572, "volume": 1208056, "typical_volume": 1119233.0, "trend": 31.469173, "fair_value": 29.847352, "relative_strength": -19.252709, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.046068, "energy": 23.474384, "activity_lines": [ 31.817513, 34.650058, 33.685323, 32.44757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.83, "volume": 907708, "typical_volume": 1031990.5, "trend": 31.48784, "fair_value": 29.863874, "relative_strength": -12.471177, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.564546, "energy": 20.122007, "activity_lines": [ 31.313107, 33.798856, 33.72706, 32.470849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.5, "volume": 608246, "typical_volume": 994458.45, "trend": 31.55984, "fair_value": 29.88566, "relative_strength": -11.757437, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.553584, "energy": 18.49148, "activity_lines": [ 31.599367, 33.198382, 33.78956, 32.536149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.84, "volume": 803278, "typical_volume": 963219.7, "trend": 31.631173, "fair_value": 29.909876, "relative_strength": -6.569237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.67809, "energy": 15.271923, "activity_lines": [ 32.053627, 32.795725, 33.850725, 32.61874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.94, "volume": 524921, "typical_volume": 888633.0, "trend": 31.529507, "fair_value": 29.901991, "relative_strength": -15.746207, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.615152, "energy": 19.831719, "activity_lines": [ 31.09848, 31.839069, 33.504462, 32.445116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.8, "volume": 1845177, "typical_volume": 925823.8, "trend": 31.813507, "fair_value": 29.973749, "relative_strength": 12.190883, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.543816, "energy": 22.132707, "activity_lines": [ 33.674, 32.85314, 34.083104, 32.91418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.4988, "volume": 933206, "typical_volume": 935853.35, "trend": 31.932467, "fair_value": 30.04995, "relative_strength": 8.668005, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.822162, "energy": 33.021444, "activity_lines": [ 35.846267, 34.005175, 34.661394, 33.410006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }