{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa49c344-a612-41a4-982b-669438348b42", "symbol": "300437", "name": "Henan Qingshuiyuan Technology CO.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.963, "architecture_energy": 63.496, "architecture_maturity": 63.751, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.63, "rotation_down": 56.43, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.456667, 10.697455, 11.945143, 13.129484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.04, "trend_reference": 14.507667, "distance_from_trend": -0.239023, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.301218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.527232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266445, "excess_performance": -0.273845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12636, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.189329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30993857, "relative_activity": 0.690307, "balance": 0.189329, "dry_up": 0.802566, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107232, "annualized_volatility": 0.632731, "from_high_reference": -0.570428, "from_low_reference": 0.341434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.507667, "fair_value_reference": 11.301218, "structural_low": 8.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.018983, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.002244, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.288026, "worst_return": -0.294352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.080173, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.00985, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.23178, "worst_return": -0.222315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049031, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036423, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.238045, "worst_return": -0.27671, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"trend": 15.159667, "fair_value": 11.379551, "relative_strength": -28.310786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.608094, "energy": 85.852769, "activity_lines": [ 10.641333, 11.296, 12.927476, 13.994753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.79, "volume": 41165833, "typical_volume": 61844080.45, "trend": 14.93, "fair_value": 11.351603, "relative_strength": -28.786687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.401372, "energy": 80.443487, "activity_lines": [ 10.262667, 10.888182, 12.488238, 13.648323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.52, "volume": 39288094, "typical_volume": 51637794.7, "trend": 14.672, "fair_value": 11.325897, "relative_strength": -22.293328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.461029, "energy": 66.444772, "activity_lines": [ 10.240667, 10.714545, 12.167524, 13.363806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.04, "volume": 30993857, "typical_volume": 44898649.8, "trend": 14.507667, "fair_value": 11.301218, "relative_strength": -22.527232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.963105, "energy": 63.495811, "activity_lines": [ 10.456667, 10.697455, 11.945143, 13.129484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }