{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa54562c-8af0-4a77-a779-7146a2582ab8", "symbol": "DEXP4", "name": "Dexxos Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.725, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.638, "architecture_energy": 18.794, "architecture_maturity": 73.719, "architecture_confidence": 63.131, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.74, "rotation_up": 43.44, "upward_expansion": 26.45, "deceleration": 41.23, "rotation_down": 16.32, "downward_expansion": 49.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.166667, 7.074, 7.095905, 7.147613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.3, "trend_reference": 7.235, "distance_from_trend": 0.008984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.413475, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.71605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.013514, "excess_performance": 0.043535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.348735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5700, "relative_activity": 0.348624, "balance": 1.348735, "dry_up": 0.721713, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030348, "annualized_volatility": 0.235652, "from_high_reference": -0.140165, "from_low_reference": 0.14374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.235, "fair_value_reference": 7.413475, "structural_low": 6.72, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.01087, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.007198, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.212069, "worst_return": -0.168056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.052172, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.017414, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.224788, "worst_return": -0.114341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115178, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.021267, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.139836, "worst_return": -0.186046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -9.408301, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.010892, "energy": 64.625026, "activity_lines": [ 6.951333, 7.022364, 7.121714, 7.218104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.72, "volume": 52000, "typical_volume": 19900.0, "trend": 7.330296, "fair_value": 7.397929, "relative_strength": -14.11421, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.931461, "energy": 74.633213, "activity_lines": [ 6.870667, 6.952727, 7.074524, 7.176965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.14, "volume": 34200, "typical_volume": 20110.0, "trend": 7.304, "fair_value": 7.401706, "relative_strength": -6.026201, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.756652, "energy": 41.777318, "activity_lines": [ 6.947333, 6.971818, 7.073667, 7.164688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.2, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 17670.0, "trend": 7.292333, "fair_value": 7.407109, "relative_strength": -4.898271, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.869298, "energy": 21.187137, "activity_lines": [ 7.038, 7.005636, 7.080333, 7.157978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 17315.0, "trend": 7.268333, "fair_value": 7.41082, "relative_strength": -7.798693, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.322523, "energy": 17.16415, "activity_lines": [ 7.077333, 7.020727, 7.077905, 7.14557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.3, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 16350.0, "trend": 7.235, "fair_value": 7.413475, "relative_strength": -1.71605, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.637981, "energy": 18.794436, "activity_lines": [ 7.166667, 7.074, 7.095905, 7.147613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }