{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa5b9b93-3828-4188-8f6c-85b5e010f1ec", "symbol": "600859", "name": "Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.209, "architecture_energy": 41.566, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.094, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.48, "rotation_up": 27.77, "upward_expansion": 19.54, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 39.51, "downward_expansion": 69.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.002, 9.87, 10.375429, 11.006989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.08, "trend_reference": 12.030667, "distance_from_trend": -0.162141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.313354, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.619487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304828, "excess_performance": -0.261624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.295763, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.943743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72907367, "relative_activity": 1.227004, "balance": 0.943743, "dry_up": 1.51012, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068071, "annualized_volatility": 0.263534, "from_high_reference": -0.40636, "from_low_reference": 0.093275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.030667, "fair_value_reference": 14.313354, "structural_low": 9.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.030931, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.017357, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.212375, "worst_return": -0.193056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041021, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.095025, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.274647, "worst_return": -0.245139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013358, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309268, "worst_return": -0.276104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.725667, "fair_value": 14.578698, "relative_strength": -30.058276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.845607, "energy": 86.795989, "activity_lines": [ 9.575333, 10.042909, 10.875381, 11.652452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.81, "volume": 103447959, "typical_volume": 57797279.3, "trend": 12.578333, "fair_value": 14.517929, "relative_strength": -22.975167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.073925, "energy": 67.748303, "activity_lines": [ 9.604, 9.918, 10.708286, 11.464344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.52, "volume": 85990866, "typical_volume": 57165845.6, "trend": 12.378333, "fair_value": 14.449991, "relative_strength": -25.631547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.694006, "energy": 66.847786, "activity_lines": [ 9.577333, 9.782727, 10.532857, 11.267032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.48, "volume": 96573318, "typical_volume": 58953315.55, "trend": 12.212333, "fair_value": 14.384273, "relative_strength": -17.926271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.305726, "energy": 52.248906, "activity_lines": [ 9.896667, 9.860182, 10.466762, 11.144559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.08, "volume": 72907367, "typical_volume": 59419033.15, "trend": 12.030667, "fair_value": 14.313354, "relative_strength": -22.619487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.209261, "energy": 41.566081, "activity_lines": [ 10.002, 9.87, 10.375429, 11.006989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }